Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has vowed to implement the largest deportation effort in U.S. history if elected, arguing that both legal and undocumented immigrants are taking jobs he describes as belonging to Black and Hispanic Americans. However, government data reveals that immigrant labor plays an important role in promoting economic growth and offers native-born workers opportunities for advancement. Economists also warn that mass deportations could cost taxpayers up to a trillion dollars and lead to steep increases in the cost of living, including essentials like food and housing.
Anti-immigrant rhetoric
Throughout his campaign, Trump has frequently used anti-immigrant rhetoric, claiming that immigrants are responsible for taking jobs that should go to Black and Hispanic communities. At a recent rally in Pennsylvania, he described immigration as an “invasion,” asserting that immigrants are not only causing crime but also displacing jobs in Black, Hispanic, and unionized sectors. Democrats and Black leaders have criticized his rhetoric, arguing that it perpetuates racist stereotypes and implies that Black and Hispanic Americans are primarily employed in low-wage jobs.
Janiyah Thomas, director of Team Trump Black Media, expressed the view that Democrats are prioritizing illegal immigrants over native-born Black Americans. She further suggested that job gains during the Biden administration have largely been driven by illegal immigration.
What data says?
According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, native-born Black and Latino workers are predominantly employed in management, office support, sales, and service roles, while foreign-born, noncitizen Black and Latino workers are more commonly found in industries like transportation, healthcare support, construction, and maintenance.
In 2023, international migrants, mostly from Latin America, accounted for more than two-thirds of U.S. population growth, with immigration serving as a key driver of overall growth in recent years. Despite record-high border crossings in late 2023, the numbers have since dropped. Trump’s advisers, citing a report from the Center for Immigration Studies, argue that immigrants, both legal and illegal, disproportionately drive labor force growth. The report claims that since 2019, immigrant employment has increased by 3.2 million, compared to a 971,000 increase in native-born employment.
Immigrants take labor-intensive jobs
Economists, however, note that immigrants often fill jobs that native-born workers are unwilling to take, particularly in agriculture and food processing, rather than directly competing with them. They say that the presence of immigrant workers tends to improve outcomes for native-born workers, who usually have different skills. Additionally, immigrants often help sustain businesses that in turn create opportunities for native-born employees. Many labor-intensive jobs in agriculture remain vacant because native-born workers show little interest in these roles.
Experts argue that immigrants are not displacing native-born workers but rather filling labor shortages. They argue that most research shows immigration has a minimal impact on less-skilled native workers. In some cases, it may even create jobs for native-born workers.
Trump proposes large-scale deportations
Trump has proposed using the National Guard to carry out large-scale deportations, but economists predict severe economic consequences. Economists estimate that deporting millions of immigrants could cost up to a trillion dollars and result in significant economic losses. The agricultural sector, in particular, would suffer without the immigrant labor that is crucial for producing fruits, vegetables, and other goods, leading to sharp price increases for basic necessities.
With undocumented immigrants contributing approximately 4% of U.S. GDP, economists argue that mass deportation would lead to enormous losses in income and production, in addition to the logistical costs of implementing such a program.
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