World
India
Japan is bracing for a potential “megaquake” that could claim up to 298,000 lives and inflict $2 trillion in damages, according to a new government estimate. The warning follows heightened seismic activity along the Nankai Trough, an 800-kilometer undersea fault running from Shizuoka to Kyushu, where tectonic plates are locked in a dangerous buildup of pressure.
Government data suggests a 75-82% chance of a magnitude 8-9 earthquake striking within the next 30 years, potentially triggering tsunamis up to 34 meters high and forcing 1.23 million people to evacuate.
What Is The Nankai Trough Threat ?
The Nankai Trough has historically produced devastating earthquakes every 100-200 years, with the last major one recorded in 1946. The fault is part of a subduction zone where the Philippine Sea Plate is pushing beneath the Eurasian Plate, creating an immense buildup of seismic energy.
In August 2024, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued its first-ever “megaquake advisory”, warning of an increased probability of a major earthquake. Though the advisory was lifted after a week, it sparked nationwide panic, food shortages, and emergency preparations.
The Projected Devastation
According to Japan’s Cabinet Office, the impact of the impending megaquake could be catastrophic:
- Tsunami-related deaths: 215,000
- Building collapses: 73,000 fatalities
- Fires: 9,000 deaths
- Total evacuees: 1.23 million people
The revised 2025 projections are slightly lower than the 2014 estimates, which predicted 323,000 deaths, but the sheer scale of destruction remains alarming.
Japan on Edge
Japan, home to 125 million people, is one of the world’s most earthquake-prone nations, experiencing 1,500 tremors annually. While strict building codes have helped reduce structural damage, experts warn that no amount of preparedness can fully mitigate the devastation of a magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami.
The country is still haunted by the 2011 Tõhoku disaster, where a 9.0-magnitude quake and tsunami killed 18,500 people and triggered the Fukushima nuclear meltdown, one of the worst nuclear crises since Chernobyl.
Tokyo’s Urgent Warning: ‘Prepare Now’
Seismologists from Kyoto and Tohoku Universities have raised concerns about the “domino effect” of large quakes in the region. Research indicates that a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the Nankai Trough increases the likelihood of another major tremor up to 3,600 times within a week.
“The time for preparedness is now, not when the ground begins to shake,” warns Naoshi Hirata, a leading seismologist at the University of Tokyo.
With a disaster of unprecedented scale potentially imminent, Japan is ramping up evacuation plans, disaster drills, and infrastructure reinforcements.
(with inputs)
ALSO READ: Earthquake Has ‘Overwhelmed Healthcare Facilities’ In Myanmar, At Least 3 Hospitals Destroyed: WHO
