According to the latest forecast from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 56% chance of winning the upcoming US presidential election. This marked a significant shift in the race dynamics, particularly after President Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s subsequent rise as the Democratic challenger against Donald Trump.
Current Electoral Landscape
While Harris leads with a 56% probability of victory, Trump trails with a 44% chance. The election’s outcome is likely to hinge on key swing states, given the unique US electoral system, which operates on an electoral college basis rather than a simple popular vote.
Electoral College Details
In the US system, each state has a set number of electors, and winning a state’s popular vote awards all its electoral votes to the candidate. There are a total of 538 electors, with 270 needed for victory. The latest forecast suggests Harris is projected to secure 241 electors, while Trump is forecasted to win 219. This indicates that both candidates are short of the majority mark of 270 electors, with 78 electors remaining as ‘toss-ups’ that could determine the election’s final result.
Senate and House Forecasts
The forecast also indicates a potential shift in Senate control. Despite Harris’s higher chance of winning the presidency, the Democratic Party might lose control of the Senate. Currently, the Senate comprises 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 4 Independents, with the Democrats holding control due to alignment with Independents and Harris’s tie-breaking vote as Vice President.
The Decision Desk HQ-The Hill forecast predicts a 67% chance for Republicans to gain control of the Senate and a 56% chance for them to retain control of the House of Representatives, adding another layer of uncertainty to the election landscape.