The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, held during the BRICS Summit, has drawn significant attention from geopolitical analysts. Amid escalating tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the confrontation over Taiwan, and shifting alliances due to the Russia-Ukraine war, this high-stakes diplomatic exchange signals a potential recalibration in the India-China relationship. Several experts have weighed in on the implications of this meeting for global power dynamics and the evolving multipolar world order.
Restoring Normalcy in India-China Relations
Ambassador Kanwal Sibal, in an exclusive conversation with Megha Sharma, Executive Editor, NewsX, characterized the Modi-Xi meeting as a critical first step toward normalizing relations between the two nations, although he cautioned that complete resolution of their differences would be an unrealistic expectation. However, he emphasized the importance of disengagement along the border, followed by further steps like demilitarization. “Apart from disengagement, which is only the first step, there should be de-escalation and demilitarization or redeployment of forces to the positions they held in 2020.”
Sibal also pointed out that China’s broader geopolitical challenges—such as tensions with the U.S. and Japan and its worsening economic situation—might be motivating it to seek stability with India. “China can see that the pressures are mounting…and their gains from the standoff with India are minimal.”
Geopolitical Shifts and Declining U.S. Influence
Dr. Waiel Awwad, a seasoned geopolitical commentator, underscored the broader shifts in global power, particularly the waning influence of the United States on the international stage. He links this decline to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.’s internal preoccupation with its upcoming presidential election. According to Awwad, should Donald Trump return to power, it could further push the world towards a more isolationist “America First” stance, potentially estranging U.S. allies in Asia and Europe. “We can see the U.S. weathering influence in the world…the outcome of the [U.S.] election will really determine how the world is heading.”
Dr. Awwad also pressed on the growing prominence of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a counterweight to Western institutions like the G7. He noted that more nations are now rejecting the “unipolar” world dominated by the West, with BRICS symbolizing a push toward a multipolar system. “There are no more people comfortable with the unipolar world…they wanted a multipolar world where India, China, and Russia are calling for that and South-South cooperation.”
BRICS’ recent expansion, welcoming countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, reflects its growing significance on the global stage, with over 33 nations showing interest in joining. “From four members to 33 members are interested in joining…it should be looked at as a force to reckon with in the future.”
Weaponization of Financial Systems
Geopolitical analyst Pathikrit Payne highlighted the increasing dissatisfaction with the weaponization of global financial systems, particularly by the West. He brought to the surface that countries like Russia and Iran have had to face severe financial sanctions through mechanisms such as SWIFT, creating a demand for alternative financial systems. Payne emphasized that BRICS offers an alternative, particularly for developing alternate payment mechanisms that could reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. “They have weaponized [SWIFT and the dollar] so much… people are fed up. For example, you have sanctioned Russia, you have sanctioned Iran, anybody you don’t like you don’t allow them to trade in dollars,” he mentioned.
Additionally, Payne took the opportunity to point out that India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) might become a potential model for international transactions, enabling countries to bypass the dollar for more localized currency trade. “BRICS might come out with an alternate payment mechanism, not a currency, but a payment mechanism…if I have to deal with UAE, why should I deal with the dollar?”
India’s Role in a Multipolar World
RVS Mani emphasized the transition from a unipolar world, dominated by the U.S. since the Cold War, to a multipolar order where countries like India are taking on leadership roles. He underlined India’s crucial role within BRICS and its increasing influence in global affairs. “35 years after the demolition of the Cold War…one country had already emerged as the leader, but now we are seeing emerging powers like India leading these groupings.”
Mani highlighted India’s technological contributions, particularly its Unified Payments Interface (UPI), as a symbol of its influence in global financial systems. “Dollarization is one aspect…UPI is an alternate financial transaction methodology developed by India’s IT sector and is a very successful and robust system.”
Diplomatic Challenges and Trust Deficit
Major Mohammad Ali Shah provided a balanced view on the subject as he acknowledged the significance of dialogue between Modi and Xi while stressing the difficulty of fully trusting China. Citing China’s history of not honoring agreements like the Panchsheel Agreement, Shah expressed skepticism about whether China would adhere to its commitments, particularly concerning border disputes. “The golden question over there was: can China be trusted or not?…it’s tricky because despite everything, China has never honored any of our pacts.”
Despite the trust deficit, Shah lauded PM Modi’s leadership and diplomatic approach, hoping for a breakthrough in India-China relations through continued dialogue. “Our Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a great leader…he should be able to handle things in the correct manner,” he stated.
Navigating a Multipolar World
The Modi-Xi meeting has been hailed by experts as a pivotal moment in shaping not only India-China relations but also the broader trajectory of global geopolitics. As the U.S. influence appears to wane and BRICS expands its footprint, countries like India are emerging as key players in a multipolar world order. However, the trust deficit with China, particularly along the LAC, remains a major hurdle. While the meeting offers hope for de-escalation and normalization, it is clear that both nations have a long way to go before achieving lasting peace.
From the broader decline of U.S. hegemony to the rise of BRICS as a platform for multipolarity, experts agree that this summit could signal the dawn of a new era in global diplomacy—one where dialogue, multipolarity, and regional cooperation are at the forefront of international relations.
