Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, leader of Myanmar’s military junta, has made his first official visit to China since seizing power in a coup nearly four years ago. The visit, which took place on November 5, 2024, marks a significant moment in a long period of international isolation for Hlaing. Following his coup in 2021, he has faced widespread condemnation and sanctions from Western countries, and even neighboring China, traditionally Myanmar’s ally, had kept its distance from the junta leader.
This change in approach, however, comes amidst increasing concerns over the instability in Myanmar and its potential impact on China’s regional interests. Hlaing’s arrival in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, for a small regional summit hosted by Chinese Premier Li Qiang, signals a shift in Beijing’s stance. While Chinese leaders have been reluctant to engage directly with Hlaing—preferring to distance themselves from the controversial leader—they appear to have recalibrated their position in light of the mounting instability in Myanmar.
China’s Strategic Interest in Myanmar’s Future
The key focus of Hlaing’s visit to China was not merely diplomatic but also pragmatic. Chinese officials have been urging Myanmar’s military regime to lay out concrete plans for holding elections in 2025, with hopes that a political solution might bring an end to the ongoing civil war. For China, the stakes are high: Myanmar is a critical neighbor with strategic importance, both as a trade partner and as a key part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The instability in Myanmar, especially the threat to Chinese investments and infrastructure projects, has become a growing concern.
Despite years of strained relations, Beijing seems determined to maintain some level of stability in Myanmar. There are fears that further chaos might spill over into China, particularly with the potential for a flood of refugees and the risk to Chinese infrastructure projects, including pipelines and roads. To mitigate these risks, Chinese officials are pushing Hlaing to hold elections in the hopes that a change in leadership could lead to peace. However, China’s main interest is in ensuring that Myanmar does not descend further into chaos, as that would destabilize the region and undermine China’s long-term interests.
The Challenges of Holding Elections Amidst War
The proposed 2025 elections remain a long shot due to the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, with various ethnic armed groups and resistance factions controlling large portions of the country. These groups view the military junta as illegitimate, and organizing elections in such a fractured environment would be extremely difficult. The armed groups have made it clear that they will target election workers, which would put the entire process at risk.
Moreover, there is also the question of whether the military will truly relinquish power if the election results do not favor them. While the idea of a peaceful transition via elections may appeal to Beijing, many analysts believe it is highly unlikely given the entrenched military power structure in Myanmar.
Even so, Chinese officials are not focusing solely on achieving an ideal political solution. Their more immediate goal is to prevent further escalation of the conflict, which could threaten their investments in Myanmar and exacerbate tensions along the shared border. By bringing Hlaing to Kunming and engaging him in discussions about the future of Myanmar, China seems to be signaling its commitment to preventing the collapse of the junta, despite its reservations about Hlaing’s leadership.
The Bigger Picture: Myanmar’s Rebellions and Regional Concerns
China’s approach to Myanmar’s crisis is also driven by a greater concern about the growing influence of ethnic armed groups in Myanmar, many of which have deep ties to Western governments and foreign actors. These groups, including the Karen and Kachin militias, have been fighting the military for decades, and their resistance has gained international attention. The increasing militarization of these groups and their expanded connections with foreign governments pose a challenge to Beijing’s long-standing influence in Myanmar.
China fears that the growing power of these resistance groups might shift the balance in Myanmar, potentially leading to an unstable, fragmented country with greater foreign intervention. The prospect of an emboldened, anti-China government in Myanmar is something Beijing wants to avoid at all costs, which is why it is cautiously backing Min Aung Hlaing in the hopes that he can stabilize the situation, even if that means tolerating his rule for the time being.
A Strategic Yet Risky Engagement
Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to China marks an important, albeit cautious, step in Beijing’s engagement with Myanmar’s military junta. While China has not fully embraced the junta leader, it appears that, under the current circumstances, it views Hlaing as the lesser of two evils. The potential for greater instability in Myanmar and its implications for China’s regional security and economic interests have prompted Beijing to open its doors to Hlaing.
Ultimately, China’s objective is clear: it seeks stability in Myanmar, whether through elections or a continuation of military rule, and hopes that this visit can help lay the groundwork for a more peaceful and controlled future. However, the challenges to achieving this are significant, and whether China’s engagement with Hlaing will ultimately lead to lasting peace in Myanmar remains uncertain.
