North Korean drones: Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are escalating as South Korea said on Monday that it had detected North Korea preparing to demolish parts of inter-Korean roads, according to a report by AP. North Korea’s military stated that this move is in retaliation for South Korea’s use of drones to drop propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang on three separate occasions this month. South Korea’s military noted that North Korea seems to be preparing for explosions, though the extent of the potential damage to the roads remains unclear.
North Korean military stated that its actions were in retaliation for South Korea using drones to drop propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang on three separate occasions this month. South Korea’s military reported that North Korea appears to be preparing for explosions, though the extent of the damage to the roads is unclear.
In addition, North Korea threatened to retaliate with military force if such incidents happen again. On Sunday, North Korean Defense Ministry issued a stern warning, announcing that artillery and other military units near the border have been placed on high alert with orders to be ready to open fire. A spokesperson warned of severe consequences for South Korea, stating that its territory “might turn into piles of ashes” in the event of a large-scale attack from the North.
Nuclear capabilities
The exact size and strength of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal remain uncertain. However, analysts report that Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests and developed ballistic missiles capable of reaching the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. North Korea has the expertise to produce nuclear weapons using weapons-grade uranium or plutonium, the essential materials for creating fissile material. In 2017, U.S. intelligence estimated that North Korea had enough fissile material for up to sixty nuclear weapons and produced enough each year for twelve additional weapons. Based on these rates, by 2022, North Korea could possess enough material for over one hundred nuclear weapons. A 2021 RAND Corporation report projected that the stockpile could grow to around two hundred by 2027. Some experts believe the stockpile is smaller, with estimates ranging from forty to fifty nuclear weapons, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 2021.
North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, starting in October 2006 and May 2009 under Kim Jong-il, the former Supreme Leader. Under his son, Kim Jong-un, who took power in late 2011, the nuclear program has accelerated significantly. Kim Jong-un has overseen four nuclear tests—in February 2013, January and September 2016, and September 2017—as well as 160 missile tests, far more than his predecessors. In 2021, North Korea test-fired over seventy missiles, including short-range ballistic missiles detected by South Korea. According to reports, North Korea has tested more than 100 ballistic missiles, including the Hwasong-17, Hwasong-14, Hwasong-12, and KN-23, with the Hwasong-17 believed to have a range of over 15,000 kilometers, capable of carrying multiple warheads. The Hwasong-15, with a range of 13,000 kilometers, can potentially strike the U.S. mainland. The Hwasong-14 could target New York City, while the Hwasong-12 could reach Guam.
North Korean hydrogen bomb!
In 2021, Kim Jong-un declared his intention to make North Korea the world’s most powerful nuclear force and called the country an “irreversible” nuclear state. Despite uncertainty over the exact number of nuclear weapons North Korea possesses, experts agree that its weapons are capable of reaching Japan, South Korea, and even the U.S. North Korea conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017, with the most powerful occurring in 2017, when the regime claimed to have tested a hydrogen bomb. Estimates placed the explosion’s power between 50 and 300 kilotons, compared to the first test in 2006, which had a yield of two kilotons. The 2017 test, measuring over 200 kilotons, demonstrated North Korea’s development of more advanced bomb-making technology.
In 2018, the regime claimed to have shut down its main nuclear production site, the Yongbyon reactor complex, after summits with the U.S. and South Korea. However, by 2021, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that North Korea had resumed producing fissile material, and satellite imagery in mid-2022 showed progress in construction at Yongbyon, raising concerns about preparations for a seventh nuclear test. Experts warn that North Korea is on the path to completing its nuclear force.
North Korean ballistic missiles
North Korea has tested over one hundred ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, including short-, medium-, intermediate-, intercontinental-range, and submarine-launched missiles. The regime successfully tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in July and November 2017, with the Hwasong-15 reaching an altitude of 4,475 kilometers and a range of approximately 13,000 kilometers. Experts debate the capability of North Korea’s ICBMs to survive reentry and carry a nuclear payload, although a 2017 U.S. intelligence assessment suggested the regime had developed warheads small enough to fit on these missiles.
After a pause in testing in 2017, North Korea resumed missile tests in 2019, following the breakdown of negotiations between Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump. Since then, North Korea has showcased new missile technology, including a larger ICBM unveiled in 2020 and new submarine-launched ballistic missiles like the Pukkuksong-5, which can potentially strike Guam. In March 2022, North Korea test-fired an ICBM for the first time since 2017, claimed to be the Hwasong-17, with an estimated range of 15,000 kilometers.
North Korea has also tested short-range solid-fuel missiles, improving the transportability and speed of launches, as well as maneuverable long-range cruise missiles. In September 2021, the regime launched missiles from a railcar, making them harder to detect.
North Korean military
While there is debate over the accuracy of North Korea’s missiles, some believe the country may be using GPS guidance systems similar to China’s, suggesting improved precision.
North Korea’s nuclear program has primarily been developed domestically but has received outside help, particularly from the Soviet Union, China, and Pakistan. Pakistan’s scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who led Pakistan’s nuclear program, provided Pyongyang with centrifuge technology and designs for uranium warheads. Third-party networks have also helped North Korea acquire materials and technology for its weapons programs.
In addition to nuclear weapons, North Korea is believed to have chemical weapons, including nerve agents and blister agents, with an estimated stockpile of 2,500 to 5,000 tons. The regime is also thought to have the capability to produce biological weapons, though its ability to weaponize them is uncertain.
North Korea’s military, the fourth-largest in the world, comprises 1.3 million active personnel and 600,000 reserves. Despite outdated equipment, North Korea’s military and missile deployment near the South Korean border pose a continual threat to its southern neighbor.
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