Renowned election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate predictions, has forecast a victory for Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 presidential race.
Lichtman’s Methodology
Allan Lichtman, often referred to as the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,” has made a bold prediction for the 2024 presidential election, asserting that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will emerge victorious. In an exclusive interview with NDTV, Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections, stated that Harris will defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Lichtman’s forecasting method, known as the “13 Keys to the White House,” is a revolutionary approach that assesses various factors to predict election outcomes. The method involves a series of true or false questions related to critical aspects such as party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party influence, short-term and long-term economic conditions, foreign policy success, social unrest, and the charisma of both the incumbent and challenger.
“If six or more keys go against the White House party, they are predicted losers; otherwise, they are predicted winners,” Lichtman explained. According to his analysis, Kamala Harris has secured eight of the 13 keys, while Donald Trump has only three.
Analysis of the Keys
Lichtman detailed that Harris has successfully met the criteria for several keys, including the party mandate and contest keys. However, he noted that the Democratic party had lost the incumbency key due to President Biden not running for re-election, as well as the incumbent charisma key.
“Democrats have avoided the loss of the contest key due to the party uniting around Harris, but they have lost the incumbency and charisma keys,” Lichtman said, adding that these factors support his prediction that Harris will retain the White House.
Foreign Policy Factors
Lichtman acknowledged that two keys related to foreign policy remain uncertain. The success or failure of foreign military engagements, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, could influence the outcome. He noted that these keys are difficult to predict due to the fluid nature of international conflicts.
“The only other two keys that are shaky are the two foreign policy keys, because the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are so fluid,” Lichtman explained. He speculated that these keys might split, resulting in Harris being down four keys. However, even if both foreign policy keys turn negative, Harris would still be one key short of defeat, with all other keys favoring her.
Economic Indicators
Regarding economic factors, Lichtman highlighted the significance of his economic keys. The short-term economy key assesses whether there is a recession in the election year, while the long-term economy key compares per capita growth under the current administration to the average growth of the previous two terms.
“My two economic keys are statistical and very specifically defined. The short-term economy key indicates there is no recession in the election year,” Lichtman said. “The long-term economy key shows that per capita growth under Biden is double or more than the average of previous two terms.”
Republican Response and Historical Context
When asked if the Republicans could improve their chances, Lichtman responded that the keys are designed to be immune to conventional political strategies. “There is actually nothing they can do. That’s the whole point of the keys,” he noted.
Lichtman’s predictive abilities faced a notable challenge during the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Despite forecasting a win for Gore, the controversial outcome of the election cast a shadow over his prediction accuracy.
Despite this, Lichtman remains confident in his current prediction, maintaining that the uncertainties in foreign policy will not significantly alter the overall outcome favoring Kamala Harris.
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