The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed serious concerns regarding Pakistan‘s ability to manage its external debt, labeling the situation as “fragile.” According to a report by Geo News, the IMF projects that Pakistan’s external financing requirements will reach USD 62.6 billion over the next three years under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. This figure is anticipated to rise to USD 110.5 billion from 2024-2025 to 2028-2029.
For the current fiscal year, Pakistan’s external funding needs are estimated at USD 18.813 billion. This amount is expected to increase to USD 20.088 billion in 2025-2026 and USD 23.714 billion in 2026-2027. Even after the conclusion of the three-year program, high financing demands will persist, with projected requirements of USD 24.625 billion in 2027-2028 and USD 23.235 billion in 2028-2029.
The IMF’s warning highlights the substantial risks involved in Pakistan’s repayment capacity, stating that it heavily depends on the timely implementation of policies and securing external financing. The Fund also noted that the overall ability to repay debts is subject to “major risks,” including high public debt, low gross reserves, and sociopolitical instability.
As of September 2024, the IMF’s exposure to Pakistan is expected to reach Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 6,816 million, equating to 336% of its quota. The IMF cautioned that exceptionally high risks could jeopardize policy implementation, eroding both repayment capacity and debt sustainability.
To restore fiscal and external viability, the IMF emphasizes the need for strong and sustained policy implementation, including fiscal consolidation, external asset accumulation, and decisive reforms aimed at fostering stronger economic development.
On September 25, the IMF’s Executive Board approved Pakistan’s 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement, valued at approximately USD 7 billion, marking a critical step for the country in navigating its financial challenges.
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