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Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit the White House on February 12-13, marking an early high-level engagement between India and the United States. This visit is significant as it comes just four weeks into President Donald Trump’s second term—making it the earliest in an American President’s tenure that an Indian Prime Minister has paid an official visit.
Personal Rapport and Strategic Partnership
Since his inauguration on January 20, Trump has met only with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and Jordan’s King Abdullah.
Over the years, Modi and Trump have cultivated a strong personal bond, underscored by joint appearances at high-profile events such as the ‘Howdy, Modi!’ rally in Houston and a public gathering in Ahmedabad. Their relationship is built on shared worldviews and a mutual interest in countering China, a factor that has further cemented the broader US-India strategic partnership.
While Trump has frequently criticized India on various issues, he has never personally targeted Modi. This dynamic suggests that their upcoming discussions will focus on fortifying the strategic alliance, which is already on a solid foundation.
Key Issues Modi and Trump To Discuss: Trade, Immigration, and Energy
The meeting is expected to highlight transactional elements of the relationship, with both leaders arriving armed with specific demands.
Trade and Tariffs
Trade is likely to be a focal point of the discussions. Trump’s trade policies, including tariffs imposed on multiple countries and goods, are a concern for India. Washington has long sought to address a trade deficit with India, which has hovered around $46 billion in recent years.
Delhi, aware of Trump’s tough stance on trade, has proactively lowered some tariffs and repatriated 104 undocumented Indians in an effort to preempt potential demands. Trump may still push for further tariff reductions, but this could lead to a broader discussion on a bilateral economic partnership agreement that benefits both nations.
Immigration and H-1B Visas
Another contentious issue is the fate of undocumented Indian immigrants in the US. Estimates suggest there are over 700,000 undocumented Indians, making them the third-largest such group in the country. Trump may press for additional deportations, a sensitive issue that India is already navigating cautiously.
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently assured Parliament that the government is working with the US to ensure that deported Indian nationals are treated with dignity, particularly after reports surfaced of some being shackled before deportation.
Additionally, Modi is expected to advocate for the continuation of the H-1B visa program, which is crucial for Indian professionals working in the US tech sector. The program has been criticized by some Trump supporters, making its future uncertain.
Energy Cooperation and Nuclear Investment
Energy is another area of potential negotiation. India was a top destination for US oil exports in 2021, but following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Delhi has increasingly sourced cheaper oil from Moscow. Trump may push India to increase American oil imports, though the final decision will largely hinge on pricing.
On his part, Modi may seek US investments in India’s nuclear energy sector. India has set an ambitious target of meeting 50% of its energy needs through renewable sources by 2030. A US commitment to nuclear energy investment could serve as a middle ground, appealing to Trump’s business-first approach while supporting India’s clean energy transition.
Technology and the Future of US-India Collaboration
Critical and Emerging Technologies
Technology cooperation is expected to be another crucial topic of discussion. The Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), established in 2022, has been a key pillar of US-India cooperation, focusing on artificial intelligence, space, and quantum computing.
Given Trump’s emphasis on countering China’s technological advancements, Modi will likely seek reassurances that the US remains committed to the initiative. Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz is expected to play a critical role in these discussions.
Reports indicate that Modi may also meet with SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. India is keen to expand its electric vehicle sector, and Modi would welcome an announcement from Musk regarding a Tesla factory in the country. Such a move could accelerate India’s green transition and bolster economic ties.
Foreign Policy: India’s Role in Global Conflicts
Ukraine and Gaza: Mediator Role for Modi?
Foreign policy will also feature prominently in the talks. Trump has expressed a desire to bring an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Given India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and its close ties with Israel, Trump may gauge whether Modi is open to playing a mediation role.
Modi has previously refrained from directly criticizing Russia while calling for an end to hostilities, a stance that closely aligns with Trump’s position. However, whether Modi would actively step into a mediator role depends on the receptiveness of all parties involved.
Iran and the Chabahar Port Project
Another critical issue will be India’s ongoing collaboration with Iran to develop the Chabahar Port. The port is crucial for India’s trade routes to Central Asia and Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan. However, Trump’s administration has signaled a renewed ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran, potentially threatening commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi will likely seek clarity on this issue.
Quad and Indo-Pacific Strategy
India’s role in the Indo-Pacific Quad—alongside the US, Japan, and Australia—is expected to be a point of consensus between Modi and Trump. The Quad, which Trump elevated to the foreign minister level during his first term, was further upgraded to a leaders’ summit under Biden. Modi may extend an invitation for Trump to attend the next Quad summit in India.
Trump’s foreign travel preferences remain uncertain, but a visit to India—given his strong relationship with Modi—might be one he considers.
China: The Underlying Theme
A major subtext of this visit is China’s growing assertiveness. Trump was the first US President to explicitly identify China as a strategic threat in the 2017 National Security Strategy.
H.R. McMaster, Trump’s former National Security Adviser, previously noted that senior Indian officials, including Ajit Doval and S. Jaishankar, had consistently raised concerns about China’s aggressive expansionism.
India expects continuity in US policy toward China, and discussions on trade, technology, and defense will be shaped by this shared strategic outlook.
While the Modi-Trump meeting will be marked by camaraderie and strategic alignment, it is clear that transactional elements will play a significant role. Trade, immigration, energy, and technology will be at the heart of discussions, with both leaders looking to secure concrete commitments.
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