Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by a margin of 47% to 40% in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, as the race for the November 5 U.S. presidential election heats up. This survey, which reflects the opinions of registered voters, indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment as Harris works to close the gap on Trump’s previously established economic advantage.
Poll Results and Voter Sentiment
The three-day poll, which concluded on Monday, shows Harris with support from approximately 46.61% of registered voters, compared to Trump’s 40.48%. Harris’s six-point lead is slightly higher than her five-point advantage reported in an earlier poll conducted in mid-September. The poll carries a margin of error of around four percentage points, suggesting a competitive race ahead.
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When respondents were asked about their perceptions of each candidate’s approach to the economy, unemployment, and jobs, Trump received a slight edge with 43% support compared to Harris’s 41%. This two-point lead for Trump represents a decrease from his three-point advantage in August and a more significant 11-point lead recorded shortly after Harris launched her campaign in July.
Context of Harris’s Campaign
Harris entered the race following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the reelection campaign after a disappointing debate performance against Trump. At that time, Trump was perceived as the frontrunner, particularly due to his strong standing on economic issues amid high inflation under the Biden administration.
Recent polling from earlier this year indicated that voters favored Trump over Biden on economic issues by margins ranging from five to eight points. However, the dynamics appear to be shifting as the election approaches.
Electoral Landscape and State Dynamics
Despite Harris’s current lead in national surveys, Trump continues to maintain a wide advantage in some metrics of economic confidence. An August poll indicated that Trump led Harris by 11 points on the general question of “the U.S. economy,” without considering jobs or unemployment.
It’s essential to note that while national polls offer insights into voter sentiment, the outcome of the election will ultimately depend on the state-by-state results within the Electoral College. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll highlighted that Trump is leading in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed a total of 1,029 U.S. adults, including 871 registered voters. Among the likely voters identified in this poll, Harris led Trump 50% to 44%, reflecting a consistent five-point advantage similar to that among all registered voters.
As the election date approaches, the political landscape remains fluid, and both candidates will likely intensify their campaigns to sway undecided voters in critical states.
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