US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has arrived in China for his first visit. He is set to hold discussions with Foreign Minister Wang Yi as the two countries work to stabilize their relations. Sullivan and Wang have previously met four times over the past 16 months in Vienna, Malta, Washington, and Bangkok. Their most recent meeting happened in January, shortly after a high-stakes summit between Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden aimed at resetting their previously strained relations.
The talks scheduled for this week, on Tuesday and Wednesday, indicate that China remains a priority for the Biden administration, even as the outgoing president approaches the end of his term.
With the unexpected development in the US election, as Biden has withdrawn in favor of Kamala Harris, China is closely observing to see what the next presidency might entail. Donald Trump has indicated his intention to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which could escalate the trade war he initiated in 2019.
Managing the China relations
President Biden’s administration did not reverse the tariffs from the Trump era and has even introduced new ones—announcing significant duties on Chinese-made electric cars, solar panels, and steel in May.
President Biden has also reinforced alliances across Asia to counter China’s growing influence and has increased Washington’s military presence, which has unsettled Beijing. The Harris campaign has yet to reveal much about her approach to managing relations with China.
The White House has stated that Mr. Sullivan’s visit aims to continue the work of the Biden administration rather than set the direction for the next president.
Beijing is likely to use this opportunity with Mr. Sullivan to clarify its own priorities, as China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has described this moment as a “critical juncture” between the world’s two largest economies.
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The Chinese red lines: Trade and Taiwan
For China, Taiwan remains a red line that will not change. China claims the self-governing island and has consistently stated its intolerance for any indications that Washington is supporting Taiwanese independence. High-profile diplomatic visits, such as the one by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022, or any recognition of Taiwan’s elections or its elected leaders, are included in this category.
Chinese state media has indicated that Beijing will concentrate on voicing serious concerns, outlining its stance, and making significant demands on issues like the “Taiwan question.”
China will also express its views to Mr. Sullivan regarding trade. Beijing has labeled US tariffs on Chinese goods as “unreasonable” and has urged Washington to “stop politicising and securitising economic and trade issues” and “take further measures to enhance people-to-people exchanges between the two nations.”
Disruptions in the relations
When he came to power, President Biden aimed to stabilize relations with China, seeking to move away from what he perceived as the chaos and unpredictability of the Trump administration. His administration sought to responsibly manage the rivalry with Beijing, aiming to show American strength and competition with China through subtlety rather than overt displays. However, this approach has been disrupted by a series of turbulent events.
Last year, the direct relationship faced a crisis when an American fighter jet intercepted and destroyed a suspected Chinese spy balloon over U.S. territory. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have further intensified the tone.
In April, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Beijing, issuing a warning that Washington would take action if China did not cease its supply of microchips and machine parts to Russia for weapon production used in the conflict in Ukraine. He charged his Chinese counterparts with contributing to the greatest threat to European security since the Cold War.
China’s growing assertiveness in Asia has also made the US cautious about the broader implications of these connections, particularly with Iran, which aligns with Moscow and supplies arms to Israel’s adversaries.
Moreover, in the US, there is a severe domestic impact from Chinese-manufactured “precursor” chemicals used to produce synthetic opioids like fentanyl, which are causing unprecedented overdose deaths and wreaking havoc on entire communities.
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