The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), for the first time in its history, has emerged as the leading party in a state election. In Thuringia, the AfD received approximately 33% of the vote, making it the strongest party. In neighboring Saxony, the AfD placed second with around 30%, trailing only the governing center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The results were highly anticipated, given that domestic intelligence agencies in both states have classified the AfD as “confirmed right-wing extremists.” Björn Höcke, the AfD state chairman in Thuringia, is regarded as one of the party’s most radical figures. He has faced legal consequences twice in 2024 for using a banned Nazi slogan during campaign events.
Following the announcement of the results on Sunday evening, AfD co-chairman Tino Chrupalla emphasized that the election outcomes indicated a clear demand from voters for policy change. He asserted that the AfD had a definitive mandate to govern in Thuringia.
The rise of AfD
The AfD’s primary focus is on altering immigration policies and advocating for the mass deportation of refugees from Germany.
Despite their electoral successes, the AfD is expected to remain in opposition, as all other parties have ruled out any direct collaboration with them.
Björn Höcke stated that the AfD would evaluate the election results and consider potential coalition partners. However, forming a coalition is anticipated to be challenging in both Thuringia and Saxony, with or without the AfD.
The rise of the AfD has been met with protests and warnings for years. Experts on right-wing extremism highlight the party’s racist and anti-democratic tendencies. Observers have drawn comparisons between the AfD’s rise and the ascent of Adolf Hitler’s National Socialists in the late 1920s. In 1929, Hitler’s party, the NSDAP, first participated in government in Thuringia before beginning its purges of the civil service and staffing key positions with party members.
Observers have condemned the AfD’s policies as “inhuman and disgusting.” They have warned against supporting the AfD in Thuringia through an unusual campaign, including a letter to 350,000 households accusing Björn Höcke of attempting to normalize National Socialist rhetoric.
Despite these warnings, the AfD emerges stronger than ever from the elections. Their leading politicians have made it clear from the outset of the election evening that they are aiming for significant changes in German politics.
Enough power to disturb parliament?
Although the AfD is not part of the government in either state, it will possess a significant tool of power known as the blocking minority. With over thirty percent of the vote in Saxony and Thuringia, the AfD can obstruct decisions requiring a two-thirds majority in parliament, potentially paralyzing democratic processes.
For instance, Thuringia will experience a substantial number of retirements in the judiciary in the coming months. The AfD could block the appointment of constitutional judges and hinder the work of the Judicial Selection Committee, thereby affecting the appointment of lifetime judges.
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Before the elections, AfD state leader Höcke expressed his disdain for the German judiciary. After being convicted twice for using a Nazi slogan, he accused the judiciary of favoring his political opponents and threatened them on social media. He indicated his dissatisfaction with the judiciary, suggesting that it no longer functions as a constitutional state.
As the leading political force, the AfD would have the authority to select the president of the state parliament, a role with significant power. This position organizes the election of the state premier and has the power to appoint and dismiss important civil servants. Additionally, the president of the parliament can refuse to sign legislation into effect.
Support for the populist party
Deep discontent with a national government known for infighting, anti-immigration sentiment, and skepticism toward German military aid for Ukraine has fueled support for populist parties in the region, which is less prosperous than western Germany.
The AfD is particularly strong in the formerly communist east, with its branches in Saxony and Thuringia under official surveillance by the domestic intelligence agency as “proven right-wing extremist” groups. The party’s leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has been convicted of using a Nazi slogan at political events but is currently appealing the conviction.
Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats are expected to maintain their presence in the two state legislatures with single-digit support, while the environmentalist Greens are likely to lose their seats in Thuringia. Both parties were junior coalition partners in the outgoing state governments. The pro-business Free Democrats, another party in the national government, are also expected to lose their seats in Thuringia and have no representation in Saxony.
A third state election is scheduled for September 22 in Brandenburg, another eastern state currently led by Scholz’s party. Germany’s next national election is anticipated in just over a year.
Thuringia’s complex political landscape
Thuringia’s political landscape is particularly complex. The Left Party of outgoing governor Bodo Ramelow, who led a minority government, has seen a significant decline in national prominence. Projections indicate a loss of nearly two-thirds of its support compared to five years ago, with support dropping to around 12%.
Sahra Wagenknecht, a prominent figure in the Left Party, left last year to form her own party, which is now outperforming the Left. Wagenknecht has highlighted the success of her new party, emphasized its refusal to collaborate with AfD’s Höcke, and expressed hopes of forming a “good government” with the CDU.
The CDU has consistently refused to work with the Left Party, which descended from East Germany’s ruling communists. However, it has not ruled out working with Wagenknecht’s BSW, which may be needed to form a government without AfD, particularly in Thuringia. BSW is also strong in the east.
AfD has capitalized on high anti-immigration sentiment in the region. The recent knife attack in Solingen, allegedly by a suspected extremist from Syria, has brought immigration issues back to the forefront of Germany’s political agenda, prompting Scholz’s government to announce new restrictions on knives and measures to facilitate deportations.
Germany’s approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine is another sensitive issue in the east. Berlin is Ukraine’s second-largest weapons supplier after the United States, and both AfD and BSW oppose these weapon deliveries. Wagenknecht has also criticized the German and U.S. decision to deploy long-range missiles to Germany in 2026.
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