Britain’s Conservative Party anticipates significant setbacks in critical local elections this week, intensifying the challenges faced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. These elections represent the final major electoral assessment before an upcoming general election, which Sunak’s party, in governance since 2010, appears poised to concede to the Labour opposition.
Sunak has expressed his intention to schedule the nationwide vote for the latter part of the year. However, substantial losses in Thursday’s elections might compel him to consider an earlier timeline.
“These elections form a vital examination for the Sunak premiership — road-testing its claim that the plan is working and the degree to which voters still lend that notion any degree of credibility,” political scientist Richard Carr told AFP.
It’s a common trend for incumbent governments to experience setbacks in local elections, with pollsters predicting that the Conservatives could lose approximately half of the council seats they are currently defending.
Sunak’s immediate political trajectory reportedly hinges on the re-election outcomes of two prominent Tory regional mayors in the West Midlands and Tees Valley regions of central and northeast England.
Victories for Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen would invigorate optimism among Tory MPs that Sunak can revitalize their party’s prospects ahead of the general election.
However, there is widespread speculation within the UK Parliament that a poor electoral performance could prompt some discontented Conservative lawmakers to seek Sunak’s replacement before the nationwide vote.
“If Andy Street and Ben Houchen both lose, any idea that Sunak can carry on is surely done,” said Carr, a politics lecturer at Anglia Ruskin University.
“Whether that means he rolls the dice on a general election or gets toppled remains to be seen.”
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Internal conflicts have plagued the Tories in recent years, resulting in five prime ministers since the 2016 Brexit referendum, including three within a span of four months from July to October 2022.
According to reports from British media, a faction of discontented Conservative MPs has formulated a “policy blitz” for a potential successor to Sunak in anticipation of significant losses this week.
Will Sunak be replaced ?
Certain observers argue that it would be imprudent for the Conservatives to oust another leader, particularly when Sunak has brought about some stability since taking over from Liz Truss in October 2022.
Conversely, some suggest that the party’s credibility has already been compromised, leading to a consideration of one final, albeit desperate, attempt to prevent a projected Labour landslide.
Triggering an internal party vote to replace Sunak would require 52 MPs to submit letters of no confidence in him, which is considered a challenging task
“I still expect Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election,” Richard Hayton, a politics professor at Leeds University, told AFP.
“But some MPs may seek to move against him, which will further damage his standing with the general public.”
At 43 years old, Sunak ascended to leadership within the Tory ranks following Liz Truss’s tumultuous 49-day premiership, characterized by unfunded tax cuts that triggered market instability and depreciated the pound.
Despite several leadership adjustments during Sunak’s tenure, the Conservative Party has consistently lagged behind Labour, led by Keir Starmer, by significant margins in most opinion polls.
An Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month revealed Sunak’s satisfaction rating plummeting to a joint all-time low of minus 59 percent.
Thursday’s electoral landscape in England features over 2,500 councillors vying for positions, along with London’s Labour mayor, Sadiq Khan, who seeks reelection for an unprecedented third term.
The majority of the council seats up for reelection were last contested in 2021, during a period when former Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson enjoyed popularity due to his successful rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.
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