A recent extensive survey conducted by a civil society campaign organization has suggested that the Conservative Party, in power, is poised to suffer significant losses in the upcoming general election, possibly later this year. According to the survey, even the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s constituency in North Yorkshire might be at risk.
The survey, called MRP and encompassing 15,029 participants, was carried out by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain. It reveals that the Opposition Labour Party is currently leading with 45 percent of the vote, a significant 19-point margin over the Conservatives. This marks a three-point increase for Labour compared to the previous poll conducted by the group at the end of last year. A comprehensive analysis by ‘The Sunday Times’ based on this survey predicts a dire outcome for the Tories, suggesting they might secure fewer than 100 seats, while Labour could potentially secure a substantial 286-seat majority.
The analysis further highlights precarious situations for prominent Conservative figures, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, whose seats are projected to be closely contested. It also suggests that out of the estimated 28 sitting Cabinet members expected to run in the election, only 13 are likely to be re-elected. Despite the survey not factoring in undecided voters, who constitute around 15 percent of those surveyed, the Conservative Party is banking on winning them over before the election.
Lord David Frost, a former Brexit secretary and vocal critic of Sunak, expressed concerns over the deteriorating situation for the Conservative Party, noting that the polling trends are worsening over time.
Additionally, there are fears among Sunak’s aides that he might face a leadership challenge following potential losses in the upcoming local council and mayoral elections on May 2. Such defeats could reignite internal dissent within the Tory ranks, with MPs anxious about retaining their seats in the general election. Speculations suggest that attempts to remove Sunak before the dissolution of Parliament could occur if the situation escalates, with some MPs reportedly willing to initiate a confidence vote. Currently, rebels claim to have around mid-20s support, with more expected to join their ranks in the near future.
