Russia’s ICBM Launch On Ukraine: Is World War III Imminent Now?

Russia’s record went to be filed in a historic incident on Ukraine soil with an intercontinental ballistic missile. It is the first time the ICBM has been used in combat; it was developed nearly 60 years ago. In addition to this unprecedented missile strike, Russia has even used state-of-the-art Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle, or MIRV, technology and attacks on what it classified as “critical infrastructure” in Ukraine’s Dnipro region. The use of such advanced weaponry and technology marks a critical escalation in the conflict between the two nations.

Meaning Of Russia’s ICBM Strike

ICBMs have a range of more than 5,500 kilometers and are among the world’s most powerful and long-range weapons. These missiles are being manufactured to carry a variety of warheads, including nuclear, chemical, biological, and even conventional payloads. In this case, it is reportedly the RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile armed with a conventional warhead, fired from Astrakhan region located more than 1,000 kilometers away from Ukraine’s targets. The attack on Ukraine’s infrastructure was confirmed by Kyiv, while Moscow hasn’t said anything about the incident.

This was just a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin had sanctioned a major upgrade of the nuclear doctrine of that country. The new doctrine holds that if a non-nuclear state attacks Russia, especially one backed by a nuclear state, that should be treated as a joint attack on Russia. This shift in Russia’s nuclear policy coincides with rising tensions between the U.S., NATO, and Russia, especially after the recent U.S. decision to grant Ukraine ATACMS long-range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory.

RS-26 Rubezh: An Advanced Weapon System

The RS-26 Rubezh is a solid-fueled ICBM that has MIRV. It was designed in 2011 and tested successful in 2012, and this one can hit targets up to 5,800 kilometers away. What makes the solid fuel design of RS-26 advantageous is that they do not need to be fueled immediately after launching; otherwise, it would be difficult and time-consuming to use. The combination of solid fuel and its oxidizers creates tremendous energy, allowing the rocket missile to travel with thrust necessary for its destination.

Once a launch is executed, an ICBM travels in a parabolic trajectory and goes through three distinct phases: boost, mid-course, and terminal. The missile reaches its highest point, or apogee, over 4,000 kilometers for ICBMs before re-entering the atmosphere at orders of magnitude higher speeds than sound—some exceeding Mach 10. This kind of rapid re-entry causes a tremendous challenge to defend missiles with some of the most advanced anti-ballistic missiles available.

What makes MIRV technology so dangerous is that it can carry multiple warheads that can reach different targets hundreds or thousands of kilometers apart. The warhead could be nuclear or conventional, and in the recent attack by Russia, they were used against the critical infrastructure spread across Ukraine’s Dnipro region. Instances of MIRV utilization are few, and the fact that this particular deployment has been made is a pretty scary commentary on the future of Russia’s military strategy.

MIRV Technology: A Game Changer In Missile Warfare

MIRV technology was first developed by the U.S. in the late 1960s and was deployed on their ICBMs and SLBMs in the 1970s. The Soviet Union quickly followed suit and had developed its own MIRV-enabled missiles by the late 1970s. MIRVs are capable of carrying multiple warheads, which allows a single missile to strike several targets simultaneously or sequentially, making interception by ABM systems even more difficult.

MIRV’s ability to hit numerous sites within one launch has transformed global strategic thinking and the function of nuclear deterrence. Within the arsenal of the U.S. and the Soviet Union, MIRV technology was a significant contributor to the Cold War arms race. In 1987, the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, seeking to reduce short and medium-range missiles, including those with MIRV capabilities. The treaty however ended in 2019 when the United States formally withdrew.

World War III To Begin?

The unprecedented use of an ICBM launched against Ukraine by Russia raised pressing questions regarding whether this would initiate steps toward full-scale global war. Will NATO or other powers retaliate upon such aggressive military action? Might this impulsive step, using such a strong weapon, trigger a reaction, pulling countries into a full-scale global war? As the world watches, the international community waits with bated breath: Will the West respond? Will diplomatic efforts be enough to de-escalate further action? Consequences of this attack could reshape global security in ways yet not fully understood.

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