Saudi Arabia is preparing to shift from minimal oversight of its nuclear facilities by the United Nations atomic watchdog to more stringent safeguards. The change comes as part of the kingdom’s broader ambitions to expand its nuclear program, which includes the potential for proliferation-sensitive activities like uranium enrichment. While the exact scope of these ambitions remains uncertain, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has indicated that the country might develop nuclear weapons if its regional rival, Iran, does so.
Currently, Riyadh’s nuclear program is under the Small Quantities Protocol (SQP) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which exempts less advanced nuclear states from many reporting obligations and inspections. However, Saudi Arabia has not yet activated its first nuclear reactor.
Saudi Energy Minister’s Announcement
At the IAEA’s annual General Conference, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced the kingdom’s intention to rescind the SQP and implement the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA). “The kingdom … has submitted a request to the agency in July 2024 to rescind the Small Quantities Protocol and implement to the full Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement,” Prince Abdulaziz stated through an interpreter. He added, “We are currently working with the agency to finalize all necessary subsidiary agreements for the SQP to be effectively rescinded by the end of December of this year.”
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Although Prince Abdulaziz had previously disclosed the decision to scrap the SQP, the timeline for the transition had not been specified until now.
IAEA’s Stance on the Transition
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has long advocated for the amendment or rescindment of SQPs, describing them as a “weakness” in the global non-proliferation framework. Grossi commended Saudi Arabia’s decision to switch to the CSA, which enhances the IAEA’s ability to verify the peaceful use of nuclear material within the country. “Saudi Arabia’s decision to rescind its Small Quantities Protocol increases (the IAEA)’s ability to verify the peaceful use of nuclear material in the country,” Grossi noted on social media platform X.
Future Oversight and Additional Protocol
While the shift to the CSA represents a significant step in increasing oversight, neither Grossi nor Prince Abdulaziz addressed the Additional Protocol—a supplementary agreement that provides more rigorous oversight, including the possibility of snap inspections. The IAEA would prefer Saudi Arabia to sign the Additional Protocol, but it remains unclear whether this will be part of Riyadh’s future plans.
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