Japan’s incoming prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, confirmed on Monday that he intends to hold a general election on October 27. This election is crucial as Ishiba aims to maintain his party’s majority in the lower house and strengthen his leadership amid ongoing scandals.
What Happens Next?
Ishiba’s recent success in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership contest positions him to be officially confirmed as Japan’s next prime minister during a special parliamentary session on Tuesday. The 67-year-old politician hopes to leverage his current popularity to rejuvenate a party that has faced declining public support due to scandals that led to the resignation of his predecessor, Fumio Kishida.
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Election Timeline
The snap election is scheduled for October 27, with a ruling party executive indicating that parliament will be dissolved on October 9. Official campaigning will need to last for at least 12 days prior to the election. Notably, the upper house of parliament will continue its term, with elections not expected until July 2025.
Key Political Players
The LDP has dominated Japanese politics for nearly the entire post-war period and currently holds 258 of the 465 seats in the lower house. Despite experiencing a drop in popularity to 25.5% in June—the lowest since regaining power in 2012—the party remains the most favored option in a fragmented political environment. According to a poll by public broadcaster NHK conducted in early September, 31.3% of respondents indicated their support for the LDP.
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, holds 99 seats and has an approval rating of 6.6%. Additionally, the conservative Japan Innovation Party, strong in the Osaka region, controls 45 seats, while the LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, holds 32 seats.
Election Expectations
The election will largely hinge on whether the LDP can secure the 233 seats required for a simple majority in the lower house. Gaining an additional 28 seats would enable the coalition to reach the 261 seats necessary for an “absolute stable majority,” which would facilitate control over parliamentary committees and streamline the passage of legislation.
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