South China Sea: Why Tension Is Growing Between China and Philippines In The Disputed Waters

Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships collided in a disputed area of the South China Sea on Saturday, marking the latest incident amid escalating tensions between the two nations. Both sides have blamed each other for the incident.

Liu Dejun, a spokesperson for the China Coast Guard, accused the Philippine Coast Guard vessel 9701 of deliberately causing the collision in what was described as an “unprofessional and dangerous manner” near Xianbin Reef at 12:06 pm on Saturday. Liu stated that Chinese maritime police would take necessary measures to prevent such acts, according to a statement posted on the Coast Guard’s website

Commodore Jay Tarriela of the Philippines reported that a China Coast Guard ship had “directly and intentionally rammed” a Philippine Coast Guard vessel. During a briefing streamed live on Facebook, Tarriela claimed that the Philippine Coast Guard vessel did not provoke the Chinese ship and noted that the ramming had damaged the Philippine boat.

China has adopted an increasingly aggressive approach toward Philippine ships, accusing them of entering waters that Beijing claims as its own, despite an international tribunal ruling in favor of Manila. Following repeated incidents, the two nations have attempted to implement a “provisional arrangement” to reduce tensions in certain contested waters.

The Philippines has indicated that it is considering expanding the scope of this agreement. However, the government has also warned that China’s actions undermine efforts to build trust between the two sides.

Philippines to strengthen its presence in South China Sea

After years of inaction under a pro-Beijing administration, the Philippines is now focused on strengthening its presence in the South China Sea by reviving local shipbuilding—a strategic shift many analysts believe is long overdue.

Originally announced in 2012, the Philippine Navy’s modernization plan aimed to acquire a robust fleet, including six anti-air warfare frigates and three attack submarines. Yet, as of this year, it operates only two modern frigates—the BRP José Rizal and BRP Antonio Luna—alongside a few other vessels, leaving it vulnerable in a region fraught with tension.

Defense analysts have criticized Manila, saying that six years were wasted during former president Rodrigo Duterte’s administration, which pivoted towards Beijing and reduced military cooperation with the United States. He added that the country now needs to catch up and emphasized the necessity of mobilizing industries and people.

With clashes between Philippine and Chinese vessels becoming more frequent in the South China Sea, rising tensions have sharpened Manila’s focus on defense.

In January, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr allocated around US$35 billion towards military modernization, approving the “Re-Horizon 3” initiative that prioritizes upgrading naval forces over the next decade. Philippine Navy spokesman Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad mentioned to local media in May that building ships domestically is better for the economy, pointing out that maintaining vessels bought from abroad is more expensive than their initial cost.

In addition to its two frigates, the Philippines has two amphibious transport ships, three corvettes, six offshore patrol vessels, and nine fast-attack craft.

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Strategic waters of South China Sea

The South China Sea, part of the western Pacific Ocean, is located between southern China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), about a third of global maritime trade passes through the 3.5 million square kilometer (1.4 million square mile) seaway annually. Approximately 40% of the world’s traded petroleum products are transported via this sea each year.

In 2016, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington estimated that $3.6 trillion (€3.29 trillion) worth of goods and commodities passed through the seaway. Another estimate suggested the value could be as high as $5.3 trillion.

Researchers at Duke University in North Carolina estimated that the total trade passing through both the South China Sea and the East China Sea—which lies between China, the two Koreas, and Japan—is worth $7.4 trillion per year.

Every year, tens of thousands of cargo vessels transit the South China Sea, transporting approximately 40% of China’s trade, a third of India’s, and 20% of Japan’s trade with the rest of the world, based on CSIS data.

For all of Asia, the economic security of China, India, and Japan is most closely linked to the smooth operation of this waterway. The South China Sea is a crucial crossroads for intra-Asian trade as well as commerce with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

China’s hegemony in South China Sea

The South China Sea is a contentious issue because Beijing claims nearly all of it as its own, a stance that angers neighboring countries, which argue that China’s territorial claims encroach upon their exclusive economic zones. China has disregarded a 2016 ruling by an international arbitration court in The Hague, Netherlands, which stated that Beijing has no legal or historical basis for its extensive claims under international law.

Recently, the Chinese military has conducted increasingly aggressive actions in the seaway, including clashes with Filipino ships, heightening fears of a potential full-scale conflict. The United States has repeatedly warned that it is obliged to defend the Philippines if the Filipino military were attacked, including in the South China Sea.

Last month, Vietnam submitted a claim to the United Nations for an extended continental shelf beyond the current 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) in the seaway, following a similar move by the Philippines in June.

China also views Taiwan, which separated from the mainland following a civil war 75 years ago, as a renegade province that must eventually be reunified. Concerns that Beijing might use military force to bring the democratic island under its control have further heightened tensions in the South China Sea.

The South China Sea is contested due to its estimated 5.38 trillion cubic meters (190 trillion cubic feet) of proven and probable natural gas and 11 billion barrels of oil reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The disputed waters also contain significant deposits of rare-earth minerals, which are essential to China’s technological ambitions, including the production of electric vehicle batteries and advanced electronics.

Malacca Strait: A bigger threat

While current tensions mainly involve China, the Philippines, and Taiwan, the most significant threat to trade in the South China Sea may actually lie in the Malacca Strait, located further south between Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 23.7 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through the strait daily last year, a volume 13% higher than that through the Strait of Hormuz.

At its narrowest point, the Malacca Strait is only 64 kilometers wide, making it already susceptible to congestion and collisions. Over time, there have been numerous incidents of robbery and piracy in this waterway.

Some geopolitical and military experts have suggested that, for instance, if China were to invade Taiwan, the US and its allies could potentially blockade the Malacca Strait, thereby restricting China’s access to oil and its ability to export goods from Asia’s largest economy.

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