People in Sri Lanka are set to participate in a closely contested presidential election on Saturday, which will significantly influence the nation’s delicate economic recovery. Incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is vying for re-election against left-leaning opponents, is at the forefront of this pivotal moment.
The economy, which faced a collapse in 2022 due to a severe dollar shortage, remains a critical concern for voters. Many have been grappling with inflation that reached as high as 70%, a depreciated currency, and a 65% rise in power tariffs.
People in poverty and debt
Despite a recent drop in inflation to 0.5% and a projected growth in GDP for the first time in three years, millions are still entrenched in poverty and debt. Many citizens are placing their hopes for a better future in the hands of the next leader. According to observers the election is expected to be intense and crucial for determining the country’s future political landscape.
The race is shaping up to be competitive, with Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and Marxist politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake all in contention. Recent polling from the Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey, conducted by the Institute for Health Policy, indicates that Wickremesinghe, running as an independent, is currently in third place, while Dissanayake leads and Premadasa follows closely.
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International Monetary Fund’s bailout program for Sri Lanka
Both Premadasa and Dissanayake have expressed intentions to adjust taxes and public expenditures associated with the International Monetary Fund’s bailout program, with Dissanayake suggesting a new locally developed strategy for debt restructuring.
A run-off election is anticipated, as approximately 17 million of Sri Lanka’s 22 million eligible voters prepare to cast their ballots in the first election since the 2022 protests led to former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s departure and resignation.
Wickremesinghe, who was appointed by parliament to complete Rajapaksa’s term, has navigated a challenging recovery supported by a $2.9 billion IMF bailout and a $25 billion debt restructuring initiative.
Sri Lanka Presidential election process
Sri Lanka’s first-past-the-post electoral system permits voters to select three preferred candidates. A candidate must secure at least 50% of the votes to win outright; otherwise, a run-off will be held between the top two candidates—a scenario analysts predict is likely given the election’s competitiveness.
Experts suggest that many voters will prioritize economic issues over traditional political loyalties. The election results are expected to be announced on Sunday, with the new president inaugurated shortly thereafter.
The incoming leader will face the urgent task of stabilizing Sri Lanka’s public finances, resuming payments to foreign creditors, attracting investment, and fulfilling the four-year IMF program. Political analysts note that a key critique of the current government has been its perceived lack of empathy regarding debt restructuring, emphasizing the need for adjustments that do not disproportionately impact those least able to cope.
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