There are strong signs that the US and UK are set to remove restrictions on Ukraine using long-range missiles against targets inside Russia within days. Ukraine already possesses these missiles but is currently limited to using them only within its own borders. Kyiv has been urging for weeks for these restrictions to be lifted so it can target sites inside Russia.
So why is the West hesitant, and what impact could these missiles have on the war?
What is Storm Shadow?
Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile with a maximum range of around 250km (155 miles), known in France as Scalp. Both Britain and France have already supplied these missiles to Ukraine, but Kyiv can only use them against targets within its own territory. The missile is launched from aircraft, flying close to the speed of sound while hugging the terrain before descending and detonating its high-explosive warhead.
Storm Shadow is seen as an ideal weapon for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores, similar to those used by Russia in its war against Ukraine. However, each missile costs nearly $1 million (£767,000), so they are often launched as part of a strategy involving cheaper drones sent ahead to confuse enemy air defenses, similar to how Russia operates against Ukraine. These missiles have been highly effective, hitting Russian naval headquarters in Sevastopol and making Crimea a dangerous zone for the Russian navy.
Military observers state that Storm Shadow has been an extremely effective weapon for Ukraine, enabling precise strikes on well-defended targets in
occupied territories. Crump added that Kyiv’s push to use these missiles inside Russia is not surprising, especially to target airfields being used to launch glide bomb attacks that have hampered Ukrainian front-line operations.
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Why does Ukraine want Storm Shadow now?
Ukraine faces daily bombardment on its cities and front lines by Russia. Many missiles and glide bombs devastating military positions, residential buildings, and hospitals are launched from Russian aircraft deep within Russia. Kyiv argues that preventing it from striking these bases is like fighting with one arm tied behind its back.
At the Globsec security forum, it was even suggested that Russian military airbases are better protected than Ukrainian civilians under attack due to these restrictions. Ukraine has its own long-range drone program, which has occasionally surprised Russia by reaching hundreds of kilometers inside its territory. However, these drones carry small payloads and are often intercepted.
Kyiv insists that to counter Russian air strikes effectively, it needs long-range missiles like Storm Shadow, as well as American systems like Atacms, which has an even greater range of 300km.
Why has the West hesitated?
The main reason is the fear of escalation. Although none of President Vladimir Putin’s red lines have materialized so far, Washington fears that allowing Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with Western missiles could provoke retaliation. There is concern in the White House that hardliners in the Kremlin may push for attacks on missile transit points, such as an airbase in Poland. This could trigger NATO’s Article 5, bringing the alliance into direct conflict with Russia.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the White House has aimed to support Kyiv without getting involved in direct conflict with Moscow, to avoid the risk of nuclear escalation. However, it has permitted Ukraine to use Western-supplied missiles in Crimea and the four regions Russia illegally annexed in 2022, although these claims are not internationally recognized.
What difference could Storm Shadow make?
It could make a difference, but it might be too late. Ukraine has been requesting permission to use long-range Western missiles inside Russia for so long that Moscow has already prepared by moving bombers, missiles, and support infrastructure farther back, beyond Storm Shadow’s range.
Nonetheless, analysts suggest that while Russian air defenses have adapted to the threat of Storm Shadow within Ukraine, defending against the missile across the vast territory of Russia would be a far more difficult task. He believes it would complicate military logistics, command and control, and air support for Russia. Even if Russian aircraft pull back further from Ukraine’s borders, they will face increased costs and delays in reaching the front lines.
Lifting the restrictions would offer two main advantages for Ukraine: it could lead to the approval of other systems like Atacms and force Russia to reposition its air defenses, which would make it easier for Ukrainian drones to penetrate.
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