Thawing Arctic: A Game-Changer For Global Power Dynamics

The Arctic circle is on the cusp of becoming a major hostspot for geopolitical engagement.

The Grand Chessboard, written by the former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzeziński in 1997, visualizes the world in the form of a chessboard, and the game of geopolitics is depicted as a game among influential people.

It is not a riddle why such visual analogies click with the readers, as people can make sense of the world by looking at its geography.

But the main question that looms is: What happens if new squares come up in this huge game of chess? And how will it impact the tactics of the players engaged in this game? This is exactly what is bound to happen as the Arctic Circle thaws, creating new squares or a new playground for resource extraction as well as trade routes.

The Arctic, once inhospitable and almost inaccessible to humans, is gradually becoming more suitable for human activity. As the ice melts and technology advances, the implications of this transformation are uncertain, but one thing stands out clearly: the world’s major powers have already started staking their claims.

The Arctic Council’s Shaky Role

At the center of governance in the Arctic is the Arctic Council, established in 1996 to mediate the interests of the region’s eight member nations: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States. Recent global developments, however, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the re-election of Donald Trump, seem to have thrown the institution into disarray.

While the Arctic Council is composed of eight members, all of the territory part of the Arctic Circle is controlled by only three nations—Russia, Canada, and Denmark. Together they occupy over 90 percent of this expanse, with the U.S. (through Alaska) and other nations having only minor claims.

The Northern Sea Route: The Game-Changer

Melting ice sheets and improvements in shipping technology have opened up the door to a shipping corridor that promises great changes in the global trade landscape: the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The NSR provides a feasible alternative to currently used shipping lanes, such as the Suez Canal, which are very long and expensive.

For example, transportation moving from London to Shanghai could avoid the established route that circumvents Africa and passes through the Indian Ocean. Instead, it could travel directly across the Arctic, cutting travel time by at least 40%. According to estimates, this route could shorten the voyage from Japan to Europe by 12 days—reducing it from 22 to just 10 days.

The Arctic is also considered to be a region with plentiful unexploited natural endowments, including oil, natural gas, diamonds, and rare earth metals, which may lead to fierce competition among nations.

Rising Resource Competition: Russia Dominance with Geopolitical Complications

Russia controls more than half the Arctic coastline, which means it plays the most critical role in this region. Still, for any shipping lane across the Arctic to be viable, passage by Moscow-allowed vessels is necessary. This entails significant challenges, mostly because of deteriorating Russian relations with Western countries.

It is a situation like nothing else found in such other important maritime chokepoints as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. Given this volatility, many nations are loath to adopt Arctic routes where Russia’s navy would be in charge of security.

Despite the economic benefits of the use of Arctic routes, few corporations have braved the waters. For instance, 2021 marked the first two-way crossing of the Arctic route but it still remains a route with limited adoption to date, far from being as widespread as some experts predicted. On the other hand, countries such as India, with its historical proximity to Russia, may benefit at the expense of the West, who remain reluctant to embrace the route.

China Increasing Dominance

Though it does not share a border with the Arctic Circle, China declared itself a “Near-Arctic” state in 2018 and has worked actively to stake its claims for the region. Using terms such as “polar silk road,” China has stressed its stake in the future of the Arctic and especially in accessing resources and trade there.

China has invested heavily in the Arctic, contributing an estimated $90 billion to energy and resource projects since 2010. As relations between Russia and the West continue to deteriorate, Beijing stands to benefit from closer ties with Moscow in Arctic resource development. However, some analysts have speculated that tensions between China and Russia could arise as both nations vie for influence in the region.

U.S. Arctic Strategy and Icebreakers

The United States has also paid great attention to the Arctic, especially after the shale revolution, which has made the U.S. the largest supplier of natural gas in the world. According to this trend, Washington signed the ICE pact with Canada and Finland, which agreed to develop the fleet of icebreakers for navigation of Arctic waters.

A leading player in icebreaker technology, Finland is an essential part of this process, and the agreement may significantly bolster American naval presence in the Arctic. During Donald Trump’s presidency, whose agenda for economic rejuvenation had placed so much emphasis on resource extraction, the Arctic region has grown as a more appealing opportunity for the U.S. But as to whether it will do so alone or as part of some form of global cooperation remains unknown.

The Environmental Dilemma

As the Arctic warms and ice recedes, the region’s newfound accessibility offers economic promise. But this same thaw is also a stark reminder of humanity’s failure to address climate change and protect the environment. The rapidly changing Arctic serves as a symbol of global resource exploitation and its long-term consequences.

The environmental damage could be permanent, and increased geopolitical tensions may spur future wars through competing for Arctic resources. Hence, no one truly knows if the economic value this region creates will make the environmental destruction worthwhile.

The Dangers of Arctic Navigation

After all, despite how a warming planet makes increasing access possible, the Arctic remains far from being tamed. Floating ice sheets make seafaring perilous, and the lack of reliable navigation routes complicates any efforts to use the region for trade or resource extraction.

The region remains a chaotic and icy wilderness that demands substantial equipment and expertise for survival. While human activity in the Arctic is growing, it seems unlikely that we shall soon find ways to exploit its full potential. Moreover, the general trend towards greener energy may reduce the appetite for oil and gas exploration in the Arctic.

The Future of the Arctic Chess Game

The Arctic’s importance is undeniable, and the competition for its resources and trade routes will only intensify. However, the region’s future remains uncertain. As countries jostle for influence, the long-term implications for both the global economy and the environment remain unclear. The Arctic game is in its early stages, and what will unfold in the coming decades is anyone’s guess.

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