After President Joe Biden authorized the use of long-range U.S. missiles by Ukraine deep within Russian territory, questions remain about the potential impact of this decision. U.S. officials confirmed on Sunday that the White House had approved the deployment of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for attacks on Russian targets. This marks a significant shift in U.S. policy.
Effectiveness of ATACMS
While the decision lifts previous restrictions that had frustrated Ukrainian officials, there are doubts about the effectiveness of the limited ATACMS stockpile, especially as the conflict approaches its third year. Map by US publication Newsweek highlights the potential reach of these U.S.-supplied missiles when launched from Ukrainian-held territories. Moscow has been aware for months that the U.S. might approve the use of long-range missiles, allowing it to prepare accordingly.
Previously, the U.S. had allowed Ukraine to use shorter-range weapons, such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which were delivered early in the war. These systems had a range of approximately 50 miles (80 kilometers) and were used to strike Russian targets along Ukraine’s border.
Will ATACMS help Ukraine?
In contrast, ATACMS can reach up to 190 miles (300 kilometers). The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted in August that many Russian military targets within this range could be hit by Ukrainian-operated ATACMS. However, some analysts remain skeptical. The think tank Defense Priorities, which opposes extensive U.S. military involvement abroad, criticized the decision, arguing it would not significantly improve Ukraine’s military position and could escalate U.S. and NATO entanglement in the conflict.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin did not immediately comment on the decision, he had previously stated that the use of such missiles against Russian territory would indicate NATO’s direct involvement, despite the alliance’s repeated assertions to the contrary. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the decision an “escalation of tensions” and a change in U.S. involvement.
Short-range ATACMS for Ukraine earlier
The U.S. had provided Ukraine with shorter-range ATACMS over a year ago, but had resisted calls for the approval of longer-range versions, fearing further escalation. With the limited supply of ATACMS in U.S. stockpiles, analysts like Kavanagh argue that large quantities of the missiles are necessary to meaningfully challenge Russia’s position, but these are unlikely to be provided due to the limited availability.
Western nations supporting Ukraine, particularly the U.K. and France, are expected to follow Washington’s lead in approving deeper strikes into Russia. British politicians have expressed support for the U.S. decision, with former British Armed Forces Minister James Cartlidge welcoming the move and advocating for similar use of British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. These missiles have a range of over 155 miles (250 kilometers). British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized Ukraine’s importance at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil, stressing the need for continued support. James Rogers, director of the Council on Geostrategy, suggested that the U.K. should do everything possible to enable Ukraine to use its weapons against Russian military and logistical targets.
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