Tropical Storm Sara, which formed off the coast of Honduras, is expected to bring significant devastation to Central America, including life-threatening flooding and mudslides. As the 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Sara is intensifying rapidly and has already begun to make its presence known with torrential rainfall and strong winds.
Tropical Storm Sara’s Current Status
According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, as of Thursday, November 14, 2024, at 1 p.m. New York time, Tropical Storm Sara was situated about 50 miles northeast of the Nicaraguan-Honduran border. With sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (64 kilometers per hour), Sara is packing a punch despite being a relatively weaker storm in terms of wind speed. However, the storm’s rainfall is the real concern.
The storm is expected to bring up to 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain over the weekend, with some areas possibly receiving up to 30 inches of precipitation. These amounts of rain are expected to cause catastrophic flooding and landslides throughout the region, particularly in vulnerable areas.
Devastating Flood Risk
Forecasters are warning that the heavy rainfall could have devastating effects, especially in areas that are already prone to flooding and mudslides. The National Hurricane Center has specifically highlighted the potential for life-threatening conditions due to the combination of intense rainfall and the region’s terrain.
Tropical Storm Sara is not expected to remain in its current position for long. It is forecasted to move along the coast of Honduras throughout the weekend before making landfall in Belize and crossing Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Afterward, Sara is predicted to weaken and re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression by early next week.
A Historic Hurricane Season
Sara is just the latest storm in what has been a historically active Atlantic hurricane season. The 2024 season, which began on June 1, has already seen 18 named storms—well above the usual average of 14 for an entire season. To date, five hurricanes have already battered the U.S., including the deadly storms Helene and Milton.
While the official hurricane season runs through November 30, the season has been notable for continuing to produce storms well into November, a sign of persistently warm water temperatures. Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami, points out that record-high water temperatures in both the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are providing the ideal conditions for storms to form and strengthen later in the year.
Sara’s Projected Path and Impact
As Tropical Storm Sara approaches land, it is expected to graze the coast of Honduras through the weekend before making landfall in Belize. From there, it will move across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, weakening as it progresses. However, some computer forecast models suggest that Sara’s remnants could eventually reach Florida, potentially re-strengthening into a tropical system once again.
Rising Storm Activity Amid Record Temperatures
The high number of storms this season comes in the context of unusually warm ocean temperatures. McNoldy explains that these warm waters are a significant driver of late-season storm development. As the storm season nears its official end, experts are concerned that warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf could continue to fuel additional storm activity.
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