Speculation is rife regarding the stability of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government following the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) withdrawal of support. Experts suggest that mid-term elections could be increasingly likely.
NDP Withdraws Support
On Wednesday, the NDP, which had previously supported Trudeau’s minority Liberal Party government through a supply-and-confidence agreement signed in March 2022, announced that it had “ripped up” this crucial agreement. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s decision to end the agreement has thrown the future of Trudeau’s government into uncertainty.
Immediate Challenges for Trudeau
With the NDP’s support withdrawn, Trudeau’s government now faces the immediate challenge of surviving the next session of the House of Commons, scheduled to begin on September 16. The opposition Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are poised to leverage their commanding polling lead to potentially trigger a no-confidence vote against the Trudeau administration.
University of Toronto Scarborough political scientist Andrew McDougall noted, “It’s not obvious that there will be a fall election, but the collapse of the deal that the Liberals had with the NDP makes the possibility more likely. However, by law there must be an election before October 2025, so an election is coming sooner rather than later regardless.”
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The Conservative Push and NDP’s Stance
The Conservatives, buoyed by favorable polls, may seek to initiate a no-confidence vote, potentially leading to snap elections before the scheduled October 2025 federal elections. However, Shinder Purewal, a professor of political science at Kwantlen Polytechnic University, believes that the NDP might not support a Conservative-sponsored no-confidence motion. Purewal explained, “Party’s declining numbers in polls has forced Jagmeet Singh to withdraw from a formal agreement to support PM Trudeau’s government. That does not mean he will support any Conservative-sponsored vote of no-confidence in the government. If you listen to his message, he was more critical of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.”
There are also potential alternative avenues for Trudeau, such as seeking support from the third-largest party in the House, the Bloc Québécois, which holds 32 seats, surpassing the NDP’s 24 seats.
Singh’s Criticism and Future Outlook
Following the withdrawal of support, Singh criticized Trudeau for being “too beholden to corporate interests,” suggesting that this could increase the likelihood of early elections. Singh did not commit to supporting any specific confidence vote, stating, “We’ll have to look at each vote on its merits and decide what’s in the interests of Canadians.”
The Current Parliamentary Landscape
The Liberal Party holds 154 seats in the 338-member House of Commons. The potential for a no-confidence vote and the shifting political dynamics underscore the volatility of the current political climate in Canada. As political observers wait to see how the situation unfolds, the prospect of early elections remains a significant possibility.
