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The U.N.’s International Organization for Migration estimates there are around 281 million international migrants in the world, or 3.6% of the global population. An increasing number of people will be displaced for political, economic and violence reasons, and more migrants will seek asylum, according to its annual report. It warns that when people cannot find regular pathways, they start looking for “irregular channels that are extremely hazardous.”
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has caused major concern among millions of migrants and potential migrants worldwide. However, the impact of his win may not unfold as he expects.
Trump has promised to cut immigration significantly, which includes restricting legal pathways for migrants trying to enter the U.S. But experts believe that while this will make it harder for people to enter through official channels, it won’t stop them from trying. Instead, migrants may turn to smugglers and organized crime groups, which have become increasingly involved in human trafficking.
This shift is already being seen among people from many countries. Venezuelans continue to arrive at the U.S. southern border, though in smaller numbers. Mexicans made up half of the U.S. Border Patrol arrests in September. People from China are traveling through Ecuador and then heading north through Latin America, while Senegalese migrants are flying to Nicaragua before making their way north.
During Trump’s first term, Mexican border cities were overwhelmed with migrants, and cartels took advantage of their vulnerability by kidnapping, extorting, and forcibly recruiting them. Many migrants had to wait months or even years in Mexico while their asylum applications were processed. The situation worsened with the rise of criminal organizations profiting from human trafficking.
When the Biden administration introduced the CBP One program in 2023, it allowed migrants to schedule appointments online through their smartphones instead of waiting at the border. This brought some order to the process and helped reduce overcrowding in border shelters. However, Trump has vowed to end CBP One if he returns to power, and he also plans to limit refugee resettlement programs and push for mass deportations.
For migrants like Barbara Rodriguez, a 33-year-old Venezuelan, Trump’s victory means they have to hurry. Rodriguez, who fled Venezuela due to political persecution, had hoped to wait for a CBP One appointment to seek asylum. But now, with the looming change in administration, she’s facing a deadline: January 20—Inauguration Day. While she doesn’t want to risk an illegal crossing, she’s considering hiring a smuggler to help her reach the U.S.
Experts say organized crime is one of the biggest winners of strict immigration policies. Martha Barcena, Mexico’s former U.S. ambassador, points out that criminal groups now make more money from human trafficking than from drugs. And as stricter U.S. policies push migrants to take more dangerous routes, they increasingly fall prey to traffickers.
Estefania Ramos, a Guatemalan woman who fled gang violence with her husband and newborn daughter, has been waiting for a CBP One appointment for months in a Ciudad Juarez shelter. She’s worried that Trump’s policies will make it harder to get into the U.S. legally, and she’s concerned about the dangers of attempting an illegal crossing with her baby. For now, she is holding out hope that they can secure an appointment.
