Trump’s Tariff Threat Tests Xi’s Resolve To Maintain US-China Relations

Former US President Donald Trump has fired an early salvo in what could escalate into a new trade standoff with China, threatening an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The announcement, made on Monday via Trump’s Truth Social platform, has raised questions about how Beijing will respond under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.

The stated justification for the tariffs is China’s alleged failure to curb the flow of drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the United States—a problem Trump claims stems largely from Chinese-origin substances entering through Mexico. However, it remains unclear whether this 10% tariff threat is an additional measure on top of a previously discussed 60% tariff or a softening of that earlier stance.

“This is an early test of Xi’s willingness to play ball with the new Trump administration,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow specializing in Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “Agreeing to Trump’s demands could stave off this tariff but might embolden him to push for further concessions.”

Rising Protectionism and the Risk of Economic Fallout

Trump’s threat signals a potential revival of the contentious trade policies that defined his first administration, raising fears of renewed economic friction between the world’s two largest economies. During his election campaign, Trump frequently alluded to a more protectionist approach, citing issues such as illegal immigration and the fentanyl crisis. In a related post, Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada, accusing them of enabling drug trafficking and undocumented migration.

To bolster his administration’s trade strategy, Trump’s transition team is reportedly preparing to appoint Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative. Greer, a seasoned negotiator, has previously described countering China’s trade practices as a “generational challenge” for the United States.

China Responds With Diplomatic Poise

In a measured response to Trump’s rhetoric, China refrained from announcing any retaliatory measures, instead defending its counter-narcotics record. A statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry highlighted the achievements of China-US cooperation in combating drug trafficking, emphasizing mutual benefit and respect.

“China is willing to continue anti-drug cooperation with the US on the basis of equality, mutual benefit, and mutual respect,” the statement read. “The US should cherish China’s goodwill and maintain the hard-won good situation of China-US anti-drug cooperation.”

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the US, reiterated these sentiments, highlighting the collaborative progress made in anti-drug initiatives. On X (formerly Twitter), Liu warned against the risks of economic confrontation, writing, “No one will win a trade war or a tariff war.”

Will China Play by the Old Playbook?

The central question now is whether Beijing will adopt the same cautious approach it initially used during Trump’s first trade war. Back then, China’s strategy of “strategic composure” aimed to avoid escalating disputes, waiting for the US to act first before responding.

However, as tensions intensified, China shifted toward a more assertive “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy,” a combative style of international relations. While Beijing has since softened this approach, the unpredictability of the Trump administration could compel a return to more aggressive tactics.