Turkey’s Shift Toward Autocracy Intensifies

It has now been just over a week since the arrest and subsequent jailing of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and a leading political rival of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Thousands have flooded the streets across Turkey, participating in protests that have ignited the largest wave of unrest in the country in over a decade. Erdoğan, who has now made these protests illegal, has responded by deploying police forces who have fired rubber bullets, used tear gas and water cannons, and engaged in physical clashes with demonstrators in the Turkish capital. The unrest has led to the arrest of over 1,500 individuals, including businessmen, journalists, and other supporters of the capital’s mayor. It is becoming increasingly apparent that Turkey, once a proud democracy, is sliding into dictatorship. Why does this matter? Because Turkey is a member of NATO, plays a vital role in the Middle East, lies at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and boasts one of the largest and most capable militaries in the world, and another thing amid the protests, U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly praised President Erdoğan’s leadership.

Former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu

The chain of events began on March 19, 2025, with the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, a charismatic and popular politician. The mayor of Istanbul was detained by Turkish authorities on charges of terrorism and corruption. Supporters of İmamoğlu claim these charges were fabricated, arguing that both he and his party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), posed a growing threat to Erdoğan’s ruling AK Party and his presidency. İmamoğlu was held in detention for five days, after which an Istanbul court convicted him of corruption charges and sentenced him to prison. During this time, protests in support of İmamoğlu were banned, and now they are completely outlawed, though they continue to occur. Since his incarceration, the streets of Istanbul and other major cities have grown even louder with dissent. In addition, Turkish authorities rescinded İmamoğlu’s university diploma, an act that has been widely seen as an attempt to disqualify him from running for president. According to Turkey’s constitution, a university degree is required to run for president, effectively delegitimizing İmamoğlu’s candidacy.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Despite this, the CHP has formally named the incarcerated İmamoğlu as their official presidential candidate. The party claims that 15.5 million people participated in the presidential primary, a figure that, if accurate, would represent one in four eligible voters in Turkey. With elections set for 2028, Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics for more than two decades, is term-limited. If he hopes to run again, he will either have to call an early election or change the constitution. For many young Turks, those who are 22 years old today, Erdoğan is the only president they have ever known, as he was also prime minister before becoming president. Critics have drawn comparisons to Vladimir Putin, the current president of Russia, who has managed to shift seamlessly between the roles of prime minister and president, ultimately dismantling democratic norms and suppressing free and fair elections. Many in Turkey now fear that Erdoğan may be following a similar playbook. Even those who were not supporters of İmamoğlu before may now feel that without stepping into the streets, Turkey’s democracy could vanish entirely.

Turkey’s history is fascinating and complex. The country has come a long way since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder and first president of the Republic of Turkey, pioneered the secularization and modernization of the country. He introduced Western legal and educational systems, granted women equal rights, and established primary education for all children, regardless of religion or background, an achievement that, at the time, was far ahead of many Western European nations. Fast forward to 2025, and Erdoğan’s approach has been the opposite of Atatürk’s vision. Rather than embracing secularism, Erdoğan has adopted an increasingly Islamist approach to governance, particularly in recent years.

There are striking parallels between Erdoğan and his rival, İmamoğlu. Like İmamoğlu, Erdoğan was once mayor of Istanbul, and he too was arrested and imprisoned. He was sentenced to four months in jail for incitement and racial aggravation. Erdoğan was banned from holding political office for life but found a legal loophole to eventually become prime minister after his party’s victory. For many in Turkey, this turn of events must feel particularly strange, as they can now draw numerous comparisons between the rise of Erdoğan and the rise of İmamoğlu.

Thousands protest in Turkey’s biggest unrest in a decade.

However, the key difference is that Erdoğan, over the years, has shifted away from democracy and secularism toward a more authoritarian, Islamist style of governance. Critics argue that Erdoğan has overstayed his welcome, drawing comparisons to leaders like Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Vladimir Putin of Russia. Leaders who have stayed in power for far too long.

As the protests continue to unfold on a daily basis, the future of Turkey remains uncertain. The government’s crackdown has only seemingly fueled further resistance, and it seems the streets will remain a battleground for those fighting to preserve the country’s democratic ideals.