Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Talks: What Is The Black Sea Grain Initiative And Why Does Russia Want To Restore It?

As discussions of a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia continue in Saudi Arabia, reports suggest Moscow is interested in reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal that previously allowed Kyiv to export grain from its ports safely. The deal’s restoration could also enable Russia to export farm produce and fertilisers while securing relief from Western sanctions.

What Was the Black Sea Grain Initiative?

The Black Sea Grain Initiative was a diplomatic agreement brokered in July 2022 by Turkey and the United Nations to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea. Ukraine, known as a major global grain producer, has faced severe export disruptions due to war with Russia, prompting concerns over global food security.

Under the agreement, Ukrainian grain shipments departed from the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi through a designated humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea. Ships were inspected by teams from Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, and the UN to ensure compliance. A parallel agreement sought to ease restrictions on Russia’s agricultural exports, though Moscow later argued that this commitment was not fully honoured.

Why Did the Deal Collapse?

Russia withdrew from the initiative in July 2023, citing Western failures to remove obstacles to Russian agricultural exports, including banking restrictions and limitations on fertiliser shipments. Moscow also expressed concerns that much of the exported Ukrainian grain was reaching wealthier countries rather than the most vulnerable populations.

In the months leading up to the deal’s collapse, Russia reportedly obstructed ship inspections, significantly reducing the volume of Ukrainian exports. By July 2023, grain exports through the initiative had plummeted, increasing fears of rising global food prices and supply shortages.

What Were the Deal’s Effects?

Despite challenges, the initiative paved the way for the successful export of 33 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain in its first year. The UK reported that about 61 percent of shipments went to low- and middle-income nations, with some of the grain reaching countries facing severe food insecurity, such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan.

Reports suggest that the agreement also helped stabilise global grain prices, which had surged after the “Russian aggression”. Moscow, however, claimed that less than four percent of the exported grain reached the world’s poorest countries, downplaying the initiative’s impact.

Why Does Russia Want to Restore It Now?

Moscow’s renewed interest in the deal appears to stem from economic and strategic considerations. While Russia continues to export its agricultural products, it seeks clearer guarantees that Western sanctions on Russian food and fertiliser exports will be eased. Russia has demanded the lifting of restrictions on its agricultural bank, the resumption of key trade routes, and the unfreezing of assets tied to food exports.

Additionally, with Ukraine finding alternative export routes through Poland, Romania, and riverine channels, Russia could see a revived Black Sea deal as a way to regain leverage over Ukraine’s economy and influence broader ceasefire negotiations.

(With inputs from the Guardian)

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