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The future of Ukraine dominated discussions at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), just days after a surprising phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin sparked renewed hope for peace negotiations in the ongoing Ukraine war.
President Trump described the phone conversation as “great,” expressing optimism about the possibility of ending what he called a “horrible, very bloody war.” However, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a stern warning that any peace talks must include Ukraine and not be negotiated behind closed doors.
European leaders voiced concern over the call, with French President Emmanuel Macron cautioning that any peace deal favoring Russia could end “badly for everyone.” While no timeline has been announced for formal peace talks, issues surrounding territorial integrity, NATO membership, and long-term security guarantees for Ukraine are expected to dominate the negotiations.
The Question of Territory
Since the onset of conflict, Russia has taken control of around 20% of Ukraine’s territory, primarily in the eastern and southern regions. Following the 2014 ousting of a pro-Russian Ukrainian president, Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk. The conflict escalated into full-scale war three years ago when Russia launched a large-scale invasion.
Despite failing to capture Kyiv, Russian forces have gradually expanded their control in the east. Ukraine, supported by weapons and military equipment from Western allies, has launched several counter-offensives to regain lost ground.
Zelensky remains firm that any peace deal must include a complete withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of all occupied territories, including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. “We will never recognize occupied territories as Russian,” he reiterated at the MSC.
Russia, however, has formally annexed four Ukrainian regions and seeks international recognition of those territories as part of Russia. While there were suggestions of a potential land-swap deal involving parts of Russian territory, the Kremlin quickly dismissed the idea.
NATO Membership: A Distant Dream?
Ukraine has long sought NATO membership, believing that the alliance is key to ensuring its security. For Kyiv, Russia’s invasion is proof that only full NATO membership can protect the nation from future aggression.
However, Russia has fiercely opposed Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, viewing them as a direct threat to its borders. Zelensky urged Europe to unite in support of Ukraine’s NATO bid, calling it “the cheapest option for everyone” to maintain regional security.
While NATO leaders have expressed support for Ukraine’s eventual membership, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth poured cold water on the idea, stating that NATO membership as part of a peace deal is unlikely. “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” Hegseth said.
Security Guarantees and Future Arrangements
As discussions unfold, security guarantees remain a critical issue. Zelensky expressed skepticism about peace plans without strong U.S. involvement, emphasizing that previous discussions with Trump were “not enough to form a comprehensive peace strategy.”
Hegseth insisted that President Trump is uniquely positioned to mediate between the two sides, adding that sending U.S. troops to Ukraine could still be an option if Russia fails to negotiate in good faith. “The president is not walking into this blindly,” U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said, hinting that military options remain on the table.
Back in October, Zelensky outlined a comprehensive victory plan to Ukraine’s parliament, which included key elements such as NATO membership, joint U.S.-EU protection of critical natural resources, and the establishment of a strategic deterrent force on Ukrainian soil. It remains unclear whether any of these proposals will be included in future peace negotiations.
For now, both sides continue to prepare for what could be historic peace talks. However, with deep divisions over territory, NATO membership, and security guarantees, the road to peace remains uncertain.
Also Read: US Vice President JD Vance Meets Ukraine’s Zelensky In Munich For Key Talks On Ending Russia’s War
