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US allies are expecting President Donald Trump’s administration to present a long-awaited peace plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in Germany next week. The blueprint will be presented by Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The conference, scheduled for February 14-16 in the Bavarian city, comes just a week before the war marks its third anniversary. Discussions are expected to center around seeking “peace through strength,” as hinted by Kellogg and other officials.
The proposed plan reportedly includes:
- A potential freezing of the conflict, leaving Russian-occupied territories in limbo.
- Security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent future attacks by Moscow.
Kellogg has indicated that holding elections in Ukraine post-ceasefire may be part of the strategy. Trump has also suggested that access to critical minerals in exchange for US support could be included in a settlement.
Threat of Sanctions and Diplomatic Contacts
The US president has threatened Russia with massive sanctions if it does not engage in peace talks. Contacts between US and Russian agencies have reportedly intensified, with both President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy softening their previous refusal to engage in direct negotiations.
Ukrainian bonds have surged in recent months, reflecting market optimism about the potential for peace. Dollar notes due in 2035 and 2036 have reached their strongest levels since issuance.
Ukraine’s Security Priorities
Kyiv continues to prioritize NATO membership as its ultimate security guarantee, although it acknowledges this is unlikely in the short term. President Zelenskiy has expressed openness to holding elections after the war ends and martial law is lifted.
This week, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s top adviser Andriy Yermak spoke with US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, underscoring ongoing diplomatic efforts. In a recent interview with Piers Morgan, Zelenskiy reiterated his readiness to negotiate with Putin, provided Ukraine’s partners are present.
As the Munich Security Conference approaches, the international community waits to see whether Trump’s plan can pave the way for a resolution to the conflict. The outcome could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and US-Russia relations.
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