With Donald Trump’s return to the White House as President-elect, the Middle East is bracing for significant changes as regional dynamics continue to evolve. If his first term was any indication, Trump is likely to place the Middle East at the center of his foreign policy agenda, focusing on relations with Israel, Iran, and Gulf Arab states. But how will his approach differ, and what are the stakes for key players in the region?
Israel and the Palestinians: A Potential Reset
One of the first key areas analysts expect Trump to address is the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Trump’s historical stance on Israel has been one of strong support, and his administration brokered the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. However, his second term might usher in a more aggressive approach to ending the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
According to Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative, Trump’s handling of the situation will likely push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring conflicts to an end. However, Barghouti warned that Trump’s past stance—leaning heavily toward Israel—could undermine the possibility of a lasting peace for the Palestinians.
“For Palestinians, it won’t make much difference. Both administrations were totally biased,” Barghouti told CNN. The fear is that Trump may allow Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, effectively ending any hopes for a two-state solution.
Trump’s Stance on Iran: A Maximum Pressure Strategy
Iran is likely to face a tough challenge under Trump’s second term, with the possibility of a return to the “maximum pressure” campaign that crippled Iran’s economy during his first presidency. Despite Iran’s escalating nuclear activities, Trump’s tough stance on Tehran, which included withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal and ordering the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, could be reimplemented to intensify Iran’s isolation.
Experts like Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, caution that this could escalate tensions in the region. “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation,” Vaez said, indicating that Trump may again push for negotiations with Iran but with a much harsher hand.
Given Trump’s history with Israel and its ongoing conflict with Iran, it is possible that his return to office could embolden Israeli efforts to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, potentially setting the stage for an even more volatile Middle East.
Gulf States: Navigating Shifting Alliances and Pressures
Trump’s relationship with Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, has long been a cornerstone of his Middle East policy. Despite past controversies, including the Saudi-led war in Yemen and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Trump has been seen as a reliable partner for Gulf states, especially in countering Iran’s regional influence.
However, with the region’s growing ties with China and shifting foreign policies, Gulf nations could face pressure to align more closely with Trump’s stance, particularly on issues like decoupling from China. This could lead to tensions, especially with Saudi Arabia’s growing relationship with Beijing. “It’s a question of whether Trump will exert greater pressure on Gulf states to decouple from China,” said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy.
Trump’s focus on increasing Israel’s integration into the region could face roadblocks, particularly from Saudi Arabia, which has refused to normalize relations with Israel without a viable Palestinian state. Meanwhile, Qatar, which maintains close ties with Hamas, could find itself at odds with Trump’s policies as his administration places pressure on regional actors.
The Bottom Line: A Changing Middle East Landscape
As President-elect Trump prepares to take office again, the Middle East will be watching closely to see how his approach shifts in response to a rapidly evolving regional landscape. From re-engaging in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to intensifying pressure on Iran, Trump’s second term could reshape alliances, intensify conflicts, and redefine America’s role in the Middle East.
According to reports from CNN, Netanyahu has already expressed excitement about Trump’s return, viewing it as a “new beginning” for U.S.-Israel relations. Whether this optimism translates into concrete policy changes remains to be seen, but it’s clear that Trump’s influence will be felt strongly across the region as he sets out to fulfill his ambitious Middle East agenda once more.
(Inputs from agency)
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