A Washington Post-Schar School poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in five out of seven key battleground states crucial for the 2024 presidential election.
The poll shows that among likely voters, Harris is leading Trump by four points in Georgia and by two points each in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Nevada, they are evenly matched among likely voters, although Harris has a three-point advantage among registered voters.
Harris edges in battleground states
Conversely, Trump holds a three-point lead over Harris among likely voters in both North Carolina and Arizona.
When considering registered voters overall, Harris and Trump are tied at 47%. However, among likely voters, Harris edges ahead with 49% compared to Trump’s 48%.
Harris’s support has increased by six points since the spring, contrasting with Trump’s stable support levels.
Undecided voters in battleground states
The survey reveals that approximately 74% of voters in these battleground states are firmly committed to either Harris or Trump, a rise from the 58% who were dedicated to either candidate in the spring. The number of undecided voters has decreased from 42% to 26% in the past five months.
According to the poll, Trump’s lead among white voters without college degrees in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania remains similar to his 2020 performance, while in Michigan, he is performing better with this demographic than he did previously.
Margin of error in polls
Harris is surpassing Biden’s 2020 margins among white voters with college degrees in Wisconsin, maintaining similar support in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
This poll was carried out by The Washington Post in conjunction with George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, from September 30 to October 15, using a stratified random sample of 5,016 registered voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The overall margin of error for the sampling is 1.7 percentage points, with state sample sizes varying between 580 and 965 voters, resulting in error margins between 3.9 and 5.0 points.
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