Trump's sweeping tariffs could reshape the U.S. economy—but experts warn of rising costs, market turmoil, and a possible recession.
President Donald Trump is poised to unveil an expansive plan on Wednesday that could impose tariffs on goods worth potentially trillions of dollars imported into the United States.
Though specific details regarding the scope and rates of these tariffs remain unclear, Trump has declared the move as “Liberation Day,” arguing that his aggressive tariff strategy will rejuvenate the U.S. economy. According to the president, the plan aims to bolster domestic manufacturing and generate substantial revenue for the federal government.
However, economists, investors, and business leaders caution that the sweeping tariffs could have dire consequences. They warn that the policy may drive up consumer prices, slow economic growth, and even push the U.S. toward a recession. Financial markets have already reacted negatively in anticipation of the announcement, with major indexes experiencing their worst start to a year since 2022.
Tariffs function as taxes imposed on imported goods. When a U.S. company imports an affected product, it must pay a fee to the federal government before the item enters the country. These payments are collected by Customs and Border Protection and contribute to government revenue.
For example, if a major retailer imports sneakers from China, it must pay a tariff at a U.S. port of entry before selling the shoes domestically. The same rule applies to manufacturers bringing in parts or raw materials to produce goods in the U.S., as well as food distributors importing fresh produce for American grocery stores.
The tariff is calculated based on the product’s declared value at the time of entry into the U.S., rather than its final retail price. The collected funds are then directed to the U.S. Treasury, similar to other tax revenue sources.
Historically, tariffs have been used as a tool to protect domestic industries from foreign competition while also serving as a significant revenue source for governments. However, trade policies began shifting in the late 1990s with the establishment of the World Trade Organization and efforts by Western nations to open global markets. These policies aimed to lower consumer prices and promote economic development in less affluent countries.
Now, Trump is seeking to reverse that trend with an aggressive tariff strategy. His plan could impose some of the steepest and most widespread tariffs in modern American history—potentially even surpassing the infamous 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which economists widely agree exacerbated the Great Depression.
Trump and his administration have cited multiple reasons for ramping up tariffs, often offering mixed explanations for their trade policy.
Earlier in his presidency, Trump claimed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China were meant to penalize these countries for failing to curb fentanyl shipments into the U.S. He has also wielded tariffs as a diplomatic pressure tool, threatening countries like Colombia with tariffs unless they complied with U.S. demands, such as accepting deported citizens.
More recently, Trump has framed tariffs as a retaliatory measure against countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. He argues that these so-called “retaliatory tariffs” will incentivize companies to shift manufacturing back to the United States by making overseas production more costly. Additionally, Trump has suggested that tariffs could serve as a major revenue source for the federal government—potentially even replacing income taxes.
“I think it’s going to be something that’s going to bring a lot of wealth back to our country,” Trump stated on Monday.
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