What Caused the Kazakhstan Plane Crash? Weather, Bird Strike, or Possible Russian Involvement

Kazakhstan Plane Crash: A deadly plane crash involving an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) flight near Kazakhstan’s Aktau city on Wednesday has left 38 people confirmed dead. The crash occurred as the plane, which was carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, was forced to make an emergency landing approximately three kilometers from Aktau.

On Thursday, the Kazakh Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that 29 survivors, including three children, had been hospitalized following the incident.

Flight Path and Deviations

The flight, which was traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, involved an Embraer 190 aircraft. Authorities are currently investigating the causes behind the crash.

Flight Radar data showed that the aircraft deviated from its scheduled route, veering across the Caspian Sea before circling over the area where it eventually crashed near Aktau. The plane had been in the process of making an emergency landing after encountering difficulties in flight.

On December 25, local media reported that the black box of the crashed Embraer 190 was recovered near Aktau. This is expected to provide critical data to help clarify the cause of the crash.

Kazakhstan Plane Crash: Theories on the Cause of the Crash

Following the crash, several theories emerged regarding the potential cause of the tragedy. These theories were discussed by officials and circulated on social media. Some of the prominent explanations include:

1. Bird Strike

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, suggested in a statement that preliminary findings indicated a bird strike as the primary cause of the emergency landing. The agency confirmed that the pilots made the decision to land after a bird strike, which reportedly led to the crash. Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) and Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency also reported similar initial findings, pointing to a possible bird collision.

2. Oxygen Tank Explosion

Kazakh media outlets reported that an oxygen tank on board the plane exploded after the bird strike, causing passengers to lose consciousness before the crash. This theory, while under investigation, is among the possible explanations for the crash.

3. Weather Conditions and Heavy Fog

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated during a news conference that it was premature to speculate about the cause but noted that weather conditions had forced the plane to deviate from its intended course. Preliminary reports from Al Jazeera indicated that heavy fog in Grozny had led the plane to request an emergency landing at an alternative airport before the crash. The Kadyrov Grozny International Airport also mentioned that the dense fog could have contributed to the plane’s rerouting.

4. Possible Russian Involvement

Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, suggested on Telegram that the plane might have been shot down by Russian air defense systems. Kovalenko claimed that Russia failed to close the airspace over Grozny, leading to the plane being damaged by Russian forces. This, he alleged, caused the aircraft to divert to Kazakhstan instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny. However, this theory remains unproven.

Kazakhstan Plane Crash: Ongoing Investigation

Authorities have yet to confirm any of the above theories, and the cause of the deadly crash is still under investigation. A State Commission, formed under the directive of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, began its inquiry into the incident on Wednesday.

In the aftermath of the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines announced that it had suspended flights on the Baku-Grozny-Baku and Baku-Makhachkala-Baku routes until the investigation is completed. Flights to other AZAL destinations, however, are continuing as scheduled.

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