On Sunday, US President Joe Biden revealed his decision to withdraw from the presidential race against challenger Donald Trump. This surprising move comes after a widely criticized debate performance and declining poll numbers for the Democratic party’s leading candidate. Biden’s last-minute withdrawal marks an unprecedented event in modern US electoral history, presenting a significant risk for the Democratic party as they navigate the road ahead.
Selecting a New Nominee: The Path Forward
Exploring the process of replacing the 81-year-old President Biden involves a deep dive into the mechanisms of US political conventions. Typically, delegates from all states gather at the party’s summer nominating convention to formalize the candidacy based on primary voting outcomes. Biden had decisively secured primary votes, positioning the party’s roughly 3,900 delegates for his nomination at the upcoming Chicago convention in August.
However, with Biden’s unexpected withdrawal, delegates now face the daunting task of identifying a replacement. This scenario harkens back to historical practices where party leaders engaged in intense negotiations behind closed doors, reminiscent of bygone eras marked by backroom deals and multiple rounds of voting.
In a similar vein, on March 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson’s sudden announcement amidst the Vietnam War added to the complexity of presidential election dynamics. The decision transformed the 1968 convention, held in Chicago, into a political maelstrom. Streets filled with protesters, and delegates on the left were incensed by the party’s alignment with the pro-war stance of its chosen candidate, Hubert Humphrey.
In the aftermath of this chaotic event, states began to adopt the primary system more broadly. Consequently, modern conventions have evolved into meticulously orchestrated events where outcomes are typically predetermined based on primary results.
Potential Successors in the Aftermath
Following the debate, Democrats initially rallied behind Biden in public statements. However, over time, prominent party figures began openly doubting the incumbent’s ability to continue. An obvious candidate, albeit not a guaranteed one, to step into Biden’s shoes is his 2020 running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden formally backed her on Sunday as he declared his withdrawal from the race.
Drafted to contain the fallout following the lackluster debate performance by the Democratic president, the 59-year-old acknowledged that Biden had initially been “slow to start” against Trump but ultimately “finished strong.” Alternatively, other prominent Democratic figures such as Governors Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania have also been floated as potential replacements.
Exploring Third-Party Prospects
With Biden stepping aside, could a formidable third-party contender emerge? Currently, no independent candidate poses a threat to the dominant two-party system in the United States. Back in 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot ran as an independent and captured nearly 19 percent of the popular vote.
However, due to the mechanics of the country’s electoral system, he did not secure any Electoral College votes, which are crucial for determining the ultimate winner.
ALSO READ: Was Trump’s Attempted Assassination The Final Nail In Biden’s Political Coffin?
