Syria’s long-running civil war has taken a dramatic turn in recent days, as rebel forces led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have staged a stunning offensive, recapturing the strategic city of Aleppo. This unexpected resurgence by the opposition forces marks a critical moment in the ongoing conflict, signaling one of the most significant threats to the Assad regime in years.
Below is a detailed look at what has happened, the history of Syria’s civil war, and the role of HTS in this latest development.
The Aleppo Offensive: A Game-Changer In Syria’s Civil War?
The latest Aleppo offensive started on a Wednesday, November 27, as rebel groups were able to quickly take the key positions in north-western Aleppo province, such as a military base and 15 villages that were controlled by government forces. Led by HTS, the rebels were able to cut off the main highway connecting Damascus to Aleppo, a crucial supply line for the Assad regime. In response, the Syrian government, supported by its ally Russia, carried out airstrikes that aimed at reclaiming lost ground.
By the end of the week, HTS had made incredible strides, advancing from the outskirts of Aleppo into the city center. As of Sunday, it appears that rebel forces control Aleppo entirely, prompting Syria’s military to send in reinforcements to Hama province. Heavy fighting is ongoing as rebels are trying to advance southward toward Hama, while Syrian and Russian airstrikes continue targeting opposition-held areas.
A Stalemate That Finally Broke, BUT Why Now?
The Syrian civil war, which started in 2011, has largely been at a stalemate since the Russia-Turkey-brokered ceasefire agreement in 2020. Since then, the Assad regime has regained much of the country with the support of heavy military aid from Russia and Iran. The remaining opposition forces were confined to parts of northern Syria, mainly Idlib, where Turkey has acted as a protective buffer for the rebels.
HTS’s sudden resurgence does, however, point to various factors that may have tipped the balance. The group is no longer seen as having been disorganized and factionalized; rather it has significantly transformed over recent years. Experts believe the forces of HTS have become professionally better with a new military college and stronger local governance in place in the areas they command.
Furthermore, the larger geopolitical environment has changed in ways that may have presented a one-time opportunity for the rebels. Hezbollah, a critical proxy force for Assad, has been severely weakened by Israeli operations in Lebanon, and Russian forces are increasingly distracted by their involvement in Ukraine. This has left the Assad regime vulnerable and unable to quickly reinforce its positions in Syria.
HTS: The Main Rebel Faction In Syria Civil War
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, is the most powerful rebel faction in Syria today. Originally formed as Jabhat al-Nusra, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, HTS broke ties with the global terrorist network in 2016 and rebranded itself as an independent group. Despite being labeled a terrorist organization by the United States, HTS controls the Idlib region in northwest Syria, where it governs over 4 million people.
HTS has launched an offensive in Aleppo by taking military bases and villages from Assad’s forces.
HTS has around 30,000 fighters and, although still a jihadist group, does not appear to have global ambitions. It has enforced harsh rule over the areas it controls with reports of human rights abuses, including executions of people accused of affiliation with rival groups or perceived blasphemy. But within Syria, the group holds significant political power as it has become an integral part of the war.
Influence Of External Forces On Conflict
A number of international players have shaped the landscape of Syria’s civil war. The Assad regime has enjoyed crucial support from Russia and Iran, but Russia’s role in the Ukraine conflict may have distracted attention and diverted resources, potentially opening the door for rebel forces to gain ground. Israel’s recent strikes against Iranian positions in Syria have further complicated the situation, so it is clear that this conflict is far from resolved.
Although HTS had achieved victory quickly in Aleppo, the regime of Assad will not back down easily. The Syrian army, together with Russian and Iranian allies, is likely to recover and carry out a counterattack. Ibrahim al-Assil, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes that the strategy which has worked in the past for Assad will be the same: retreat, consolidate, and attack.
The next days and weeks will be particularly challenging for the rebels, who are likely to be pressed hard by Syrian forces consolidating in Hama. As Russian airstrikes gain power, HTS’s grip on Aleppo could prove to be short-lived unless the group manages to keep gaining momentum and resist the regime’s retaliation.
