Since October 2021, Labour has consistently led the Conservatives in the polls, holding a lead of around 20 percentage points since early 2023.
During the initial phase of his leadership, Sir Keir struggled to improve Labour’s poor poll performance. A significant by-election defeat in Hartlepool in 2021 spurred a renewed focus on reclaiming voters in the so-called Red Wall—constituencies in the North of England and the Midlands that were traditionally Labour strongholds but swung to the Conservatives in the 2019 election.
This shift in strategy led Sir Keir to abandon previous commitments to abolish university tuition fees and nationalize energy and water companies. Some party members on the left have accused him of betrayal and breaking promises.
Before the dissolution of Parliament for the election, Labour held 205 seats. To secure an outright majority, they would need to win 326 seats.
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