On November 5, voters across the US will head to the polls to elect the next president. Initially anticipated as a rematch of the 2020 election, the race took a dramatic turn in July when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. This shift has set up a crucial contest between Harris and former President Donald Trump. As Election Day nears, all eyes are on how key events, such as the upcoming presidential debate, might influence the race for the White House.
Current National Polling
Before Biden’s exit, national polls consistently showed him trailing Donald Trump. Hypothetical polls suggested that Harris might not perform significantly better. However, the dynamics changed once Harris started her campaign, allowing her to gain a slight lead over Trump in recent national polls.
Poll Averages
- Kamala Harris: Recently averaging around 47%, with a notable boost following her convention speech on August 22. Her numbers have stabilized since.
- Donald Trump: Averaging about 44%, with little impact from Robert F. Kennedy’s endorsement withdrawal.
These national averages provide a broad view of voter sentiment but do not account for the complexities of the US electoral system, which relies on the Electoral College rather than a simple popular vote.
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Battleground States
The real battlegrounds are the key states where the election will likely be decided. Recent polls show tight races in these critical areas:
- Pennsylvania: Key for its high number of electoral votes. Polls suggest less than one percentage point difference between the candidates.
- Michigan and Wisconsin: Once Democratic strongholds turned red in 2016 and regained by Biden in 2020. Current polls indicate tight races in these states as well.
The tight margins in these battleground states mean that a few percentage points could swing the outcome significantly.
Poll Methodology
The poll averages discussed are from 538, a polling analysis website affiliated with ABC News. 538 gathers data from various national and state polls and applies strict quality controls. These include transparency in polling methods and sample sizes.
Trustworthiness of Polls
The close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump highlights the difficulty in predicting the election outcome. Polls have previously underestimated Trump’s support, and adjustments are being made to improve accuracy. Challenges remain, including estimating voter turnout and the changing dynamics of the race.
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