Why Has Zelenskyy Fired Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has removed Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk from his position as the air force commander, as outlined in a presidential decree released late on Friday.

The decree does not specify the reason for Oleshchuk’s dismissal. However, the notice follows shortly after Kyiv experienced the loss of its first U.S.-made F-16 fighter jet in an aerial clash on Monday. The jet crashed while defending against a significant Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, resulting in the death of a top Ukrainian pilot.

In a video statement on Friday evening, Zelenskyy commented on his decision to dismiss the air force commander, emphasizing the need to strengthen defenses, protect people, and safeguard personnel and soldiers.

The Ukrainian air force only confirmed the crash on Thursday, three days after the incident.

Lost in friendly fire or downed?

The delay in confirming the crash has raised questions about the circumstances leading to the jet’s downing. Ukrainian lawmaker Mariana Bezuhla alleged on Friday that Ukraine’s air defense accidentally shot down the plane, claiming it was the third instance of Ukraine losing a jet to friendly fire. She did not provide evidence for her accusation.

Oleshchuk responded by accusing Bezuhla of undermining the Ukrainian air force and U.S. weapons while supporting Russian propaganda. He did not specify the cause of the crash but assured that an investigation would be conducted. In a Facebook post on Friday, he stated that no information has been concealed and that senior management, as well as U.S. partners, were promptly informed about the disaster and have joined the investigation. He added that detailed information about such incidents cannot be immediately released to the public and must be handled cautiously due to the ongoing war.

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Lt Gen Anatolii Kryvonozhko appointed as interim commander

Lt Gen Anatolii Kryvonozhko has been appointed as the interim commander of Ukraine’s air force, according to a statement from the army’s general staff. He previously managed the central air command and led operations in the central region of the country.

He assumes this role amid ongoing disputes over the loss of the F-16 jet, which has sparked intense debate within Ukraine.

Since US President Joe Biden authorized willing European allies to send F-16s to Ukraine in August 2023, NATO countries have pledged around 65 of these jets.

President Zelensky has dismissed several military commanders following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Earlier this year, in February, he removed the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Additionally, in June, Lt Gen Yuriy Sodol was dismissed following public criticism of high casualties and allegations of incompetence.

The American-made F-16 is a renowned fighter jet that has served as the preferred combat aircraft for the NATO alliance and numerous air forces globally for 50 years.

In August 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden approved the deployment of used F-16s to Ukraine, although the U.S. will not be supplying any of its own aircraft.

Despite Russia’s recent incremental battlefield advances, its steady progress is accumulating as Ukraine gradually loses ground.

Importance of F-16s in Russia-Ukraine War

The F-16s are expected to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities, particularly by upgrading its air defenses. However, analysts believe these jets alone will not be sufficient to change the course of the war.

F-16s were supplied to Ukraine, likely to undertake three primary missions: intercepting Russian missiles and drones, suppressing enemy air defense systems, and targeting Russian troop positions and ammunition depots with air-to-ground missiles.

Details about the F-16 deployment remain classified, including the specifics of what Western governments permit them to target and the types of weapons that will be provided with the jets.

The F-16s might carry Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles supplied by the United Kingdom, with a range exceeding 250 kilometers, potentially reaching targets inside Russia. They could also be equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles that would pose a threat to Russian bombers and fighter jets. The aircraft’s advanced radar systems will enable Ukrainian pilots to identify targets at greater distances compared to their current MiG-29s, Su-27s, and Su-24s.

Destroying an F-16: What would it mean for Russia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin would likely relish the image of destroying F-16s from NATO countries. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had earlier mentioned that the F-16s would not be a “magic pill” to alter the conflict’s outcome. He also noted that Russian authorities have already offered rewards to servicemen who destroy F-16s.

The Kremlin’s forces are expected to attempt to destroy the F-16s on the ground with long-range missiles, having already targeted Ukraine’s limited number of suitable airfields. Analysts suggest that Ukrainians will need to park the F-16s in fortified hangars, disperse them across various locations, use decoy model aircraft, and be prepared for rapid takeoff in response to air raid warnings.

Ukraine has indicated it might station some F-16s at foreign bases for protection from Russian strikes, which prompted a stern warning from Putin that any Western air base hosting Ukrainian fighter jets would become a “legitimate target” for Russian forces.

F-16 vs S-300 and S-400

U.S. officials have stated that the F-16s will be based in Ukraine. In the air, Ukrainian F-16s will face Russia’s formidable S-300 and S-400 mobile surface-to-air missile systems capable of targeting multiple aircraft simultaneously. Russia’s military also possesses several hundred operational fighter jets and advanced air surveillance radars. Borsari notes that Russia’s Su-35 fighter jet, with its long-range radar, will be a significant threat to the F-16, as it can track and engage multiple targets across a wide area.

Despite this, the Russians recognize they will be facing a more formidable aircraft than previously encountered in the war and will likely adopt a more cautious strategy.

Regarding the protection of the F-16s, aviation experts assert that Ukraine has strong defenses to safeguard the fighter jets against attacks. It was reported that Ukraine has effective anti-aircraft defenses to protect its airfields from Russian attacks, which have so far been somewhat unsuccessful.
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