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In a trio of elections on Tuesday, early warning signs emerged for Republicans and President Donald Trump at the outset of his ambitious term. Democrats rallied against his sweeping efforts to reduce the federal government’s reach, while billionaire Elon Musk’s increasing political involvement also faced a significant setback.
Wisconsin Supreme Court Race: A Major Defeat for Conservatives
The most closely watched contest was the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, where conservative judge Brad Schimel, endorsed by Trump and backed by Musk’s groups with $21 million in funding, suffered a decisive defeat. The loss came in a state Trump won in November, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Meanwhile, in Florida, Republicans managed to retain two of the most pro-Trump House districts. However, both Republican candidates underperformed compared to Trump’s margins in the state’s presidential election, raising concerns about the party’s strength in down-ballot races.
A Test of Voter Sentiment in the Trump Era
These elections—marking the first major contests since Trump returned to power—were widely viewed as an early gauge of public opinion. Trump has moved with unprecedented speed to reshape the federal government, often clashing with the courts and seeking political retribution. Tuesday’s results offered a glimmer of hope for Democrats, who have faced internal and external criticism over their response to Trump’s governance.
Historically, the party that loses the presidency in November tends to gain ground in the following midterm elections. Tuesday’s outcomes suggest that Democrats may be able to capitalize on this trend.
Major Political Shifts in Wisconsin
Trump won Wisconsin in November by a narrow margin of 0.8 percentage points—fewer than 30,000 votes. However, in the first significant election since he took office, the state, known for its swing-state status, saw a notable shift toward Democrats.
Crawford’s success extended beyond Democratic strongholds. She made notable gains in the suburban Milwaukee counties, which Republicans typically rely on to bolster their statewide margins. Additionally, she secured victories in Kenosha and Racine counties—both of which Trump won over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in November—defeating Schimel by approximately 10 percentage points.
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