Yunus-Xi Meeting: Bangladesh Chief Advisor’s Agenda In China And Implications For India Explained

Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus is set to hold his first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, marking a significant step in the deepening relations between the two nations. The visit comes at a time when diplomatic tensions between Bangladesh and India remain high.

Strained Ties With India

Since assuming office in August, Yunus has yet to visit India, signaling strained ties with New Delhi. His rise to power followed the removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a longtime Indian ally, after violent protests. Hasina sought refuge in India, but Bangladesh’s requests for her extradition have gone unanswered.

China has steadily strengthened its ties with Bangladesh, emerging as its largest trading partner with annual trade valued at $25 billion. However, despite Beijing’s offer of zero-tariff market access for various products, Bangladesh’s exports to China remain low, standing at just $1 billion.

China’s Expanding Influence in Bangladesh After Yunus Took Office

As Bangladesh’s relationship with India weakens, its growing alignment with China could shift South Asia’s geopolitical balance. China’s increasing footprint in Bangladesh spans strategic, economic, and technological domains, raising concerns in New Delhi.

Chinese military sales to Bangladesh have previously been a point of security apprehension for India. Additionally, Chinese companies have been the leading investors in Bangladesh since the interim government took office, with at least 14 firms committing over $230 million, according to Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun welcomed Yunus’s visit, stating that both nations are “willing to strengthen exchanges and cooperation to further develop our bilateral relationship.”

Beijing’s involvement in Bangladesh’s infrastructure sector is extensive, including major projects such as the Padma Bridge rail link and the Dhaka Elevated Expressway. Potential announcements during Yunus’s visit could include new investments, special economic zones, healthcare initiatives, and loan agreements, according to Bangladesh’s Foreign Secretary Jashim Uddin.

Yunus Visit and His Agenda in China

Yunus will begin his visit by attending the opening session of the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan on March 27. The following day, he is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Additionally, Yunus will deliver a speech at Peking University, where he is reportedly set to receive an honorary doctorate. His trip to China is seen as an effort to bolster his government’s legitimacy amid ongoing domestic uncertainties.

Bangladesh is also looking to secure Chinese financial support following the United States’ recent cancellation of $29 billion in aid. The Daily Star reports that Dhaka and Beijing are set to sign at least eight memoranda of understanding (MoUs) covering trade, culture, infrastructure, and water management, including the upgrading of Mongla Port—Bangladesh’s second-largest seaport.

Chinese investment is expected to be a central topic during Yunus’s visit. Bangladesh is pushing for a reduction in interest rates on Chinese loans from 2-3% to 1% and an extension of the repayment period from 20 to 30 years.

Strategic and Security Implications for India

China’s growing role in Bangladesh is being closely monitored by India. New Delhi’s historically strong ties with Dhaka have suffered since Hasina’s removal, with factors such as India providing refuge to the former leader, reports of alleged attacks on Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, and an increase in refugee flows contributing to the strain.

Despite Dhaka’s requests, India has refused to extradite Hasina. Meanwhile, China has expanded its influence in trade, defense, investment, and strategic affairs, capitalizing on the diplomatic gap left by India.

A notable shift has been in medical tourism. India’s reduction in medical visas for Bangladeshis has led to an increase in Bangladeshi patients seeking treatment in China and Thailand. Earlier this month, a Bangladeshi medical delegation visited Kunming to discuss setting up dedicated hospitals for Bangladeshi patients.

Teesta River Talks and the Rohingya Crisis

Water management is expected to be a key discussion point during Yunus’s visit, particularly regarding the Teesta River. China has proposed dredging and embankment work on a portion of the river, though Dhaka has yet to approve the project.

India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers that flow from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal, with the Ganga and Brahmaputra (known as Jamuna in Bangladesh) being the largest. The Teesta, a Brahmaputra tributary, originates in Sikkim and West Bengal before entering Bangladesh. China’s involvement in Teesta water management has raised concerns in India.

Another major issue expected to be discussed is the Rohingya refugee crisis. A Bangladesh foreign ministry official told The Daily Star that Dhaka will seek Beijing’s assistance in addressing the ongoing humanitarian challenge.

India’s Response and Regional Strategy

India is watching these developments with caution. Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific makes it a key player in China’s broader military and economic strategy.

“Bangladesh’s geostrategic location in the Indo-Pacific makes it a crucial mass in China’s military calculus to counter India and other regional powers. Control over key maritime routes and potential access to naval infrastructure could bolster Beijing’s presence in the Bay of Bengal,” Rishi Gupta, Assistant Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, wrote in an opinion piece for ThePrint.

Adding to India’s concerns, Bangladesh has also been rebuilding diplomatic ties with Pakistan, another regional rival of New Delhi.

Happymon Jacob, an international relations professor at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), told Reuters, “South Asia is undergoing a major strategic shift in which China is becoming one of the biggest players. With every South Asian country, the traditional primacy that India enjoyed is being questioned.”

Amid China’s increasing engagement, India has adopted a strategy of “strategic caution and patience,” according to an Indian Express analysis. New Delhi has recently intensified diplomatic outreach, with Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Kumar Verma holding meetings with key officials in Dhaka. Additionally, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra visited Bangladesh for consultations with his counterpart and a meeting with Yunus.

Speculation is also growing about a possible meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yunus next month on the sidelines of the sixth BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand.

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